Strong Relations Between ENSO and the Arctic Oscillation in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble

L'Heureux, Michelle L.; Tippett, Michael K.; Kumar, Arun; Butler, Amy H.; Ciasto, Laura M.; Ding, Qinghua; Harnos, Kirstin J.; Johnson, Nathaniel C.

doi:10.1002/2017GL074854

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Strong Relations Between ENSO and the Arctic Oscillation in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble

2017
By L'Heureux, Michelle L. ; Tippett, Michael K. ; Kumar, Arun ; ...
Source: Geophysical Research Letters 44(22): 11654-11662, 2017

[PDF-1.48 MB]

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Journal Title:

Geopysical Research Letters
Personal Author:

L'Heureux, Michelle L. ; Tippett, Michael K. ; Kumar, Arun ; Butler, Amy H. ; Ciasto, Laura M. ; ... More +

L'Heureux, Michelle L. ; Tippett, Michael K. ; Kumar, Arun ; Butler, Amy H. ; Ciasto, Laura M. ; Ding, Qinghua ; Harnos, Kirstin J. ; Johnson, Nathaniel C. Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CPO (Climate Program Office) ; NWS (National Weather Service) ; CPC (Climate Prediction Center)

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CPO (Climate Program Office) ; NWS (National Weather Service) ; CPC (Climate Prediction Center) Less -
Description:

Arctic Oscillation (AO) variability impacts climate anomalies over the middle to high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. Recently, state‐of‐the‐art climate prediction models have proved capable of skillfully predicting the AO during the winter, revealing a previously unrealized source of climate predictability. Hindcasts from the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) show that the seasonal, ensemble mean 200 hPa AO index is skillfully predicted up to 7 months in advance and that this skill, especially at longer leads, is coincident with previously unknown and strong relations (r > 0.9) with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The NMME is a seasonal prediction system that comprises eight models and up to 100 members with forecasts out to 12 months. Observed ENSO‐AO correlations are within the spread of the NMME member correlations, but the majority of member correlations are stronger than observed, consistent with too high predictability in the model, or overconfidence.
Keywords:

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Climatology El Niño Current Ocean-atmosphere Interaction
Source:

Geophysical Research Letters 44(22): 11654-11662, 2017
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL074854
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. NA16OAR4310075 ; Grant no. NA15OAR4310162

Grant no. NA16OAR4310075 ; Grant no. NA15OAR4310162 Less -
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urn:sha256:bb2b7ce3c2f01796c9fad2b9114da97104303728396f6e377293c18c1d062ab8
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Strong Relations Between ENSO and the Arctic Oscillation in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble

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