Strong Relations Between ENSO and the Arctic Oscillation in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble

L'Heureux, Michelle L.; Tippett, Michael K.; Kumar, Arun; Butler, Amy H.; Ciasto, Laura M.; Ding, Qinghua; Harnos, Kirstin J.; Johnson, Nathaniel C.

doi:10.1002/2017gl074854

i

Strong Relations Between ENSO and the Arctic Oscillation in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble

2017
By L'Heureux, Michelle L. ; Tippett, Michael K. ; Kumar, Arun ; ...

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Journal Title:

Geophysical Research Letters
Personal Author:

L'Heureux, Michelle L. ; Tippett, Michael K. ; Kumar, Arun ; Butler, Amy H. ; Ciasto, Laura M. ; Ding, Qinghua ; Harnos, Kirstin J. ; Johnson, Nathaniel C.
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; GML (Global Monitoring Laboratory) ; ESRL (Earth System Research Laboratory) ; CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences) ; CSL (Chemical Sciences Laboratory) ; GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory) ; CPC (Climate Prediction Center) ; NWS (National Weather Service)
Description:

Arctic Oscillation (AO) variability impacts climate anomalies over the middle to high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. Recently, state‐of‐the‐art climate prediction models have proved capable of skillfully predicting the AO during the winter, revealing a previously unrealized source of climate predictability. Hindcasts from the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) show that the seasonal, ensemble mean 200 hPa AO index is skillfully predicted up to 7 months in advance and that this skill, especially at longer leads, is coincident with previously unknown and strong relations (r > 0.9) with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The NMME is a seasonal prediction system that comprises eight models and up to 100 members with forecasts out to 12 months. Observed ENSO‐AO correlations are within the spread of the NMME member correlations, but the majority of member correlations are stronger than observed, consistent with too high predictability in the model, or overconfidence.
Keywords:

Climatology El Niño Current Ocean-atmosphere Interaction Ocean-atmosphere Interaction
Source:

Geophysical Research Letters 44(22): 11654-11662, 2017
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1002/2017gl074854
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. NA15OAR4310162 ; Grant no. NA16OAR4310075 ; Grant no. NA14OAR4320106
Rights Information:

Other
Compliance:

Submitted
Main Document Checksum:

urn:sha256:328d7d05a789fc5240341ac179d5f8b15ea1390ada91357bbeac6504c642e8e5
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/20908/noaa_20908_DS1.pdf
File Type:

[PDF - 1.52 MB ]

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