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Arctic Report Card 2020: Integrating models and observations to better predict a changing Arctic sea ice cover
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2020
Series: Arctic Report Card
Details:
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Alternative Title:Integrating Models and Observations to Better Predict a Changing Arctic Sea Ice Cover
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Personal Author:
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Corporate Authors:National Center for Atmospheric Research (U.S.). Climate and Global Dynamics Division ; United States. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research ; Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (U.S.) ; Los Alamos National Laboratory. Theoretical Division ; Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (Fort Collins, Colo.)
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NOAA Program & Office:
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Description:The Arctic is rapidly changing in response to rising greenhouse gas concentrations. To better prepare for Arctic change, reliable predictions are needed across a range of timescales. This includes sub-seasonal forecasts that aid near-term planning to multi-decadal projections that allow for informed decisions on climate change mitigation and adaptation. The sources of predictability differ across timescales. Accurate initial conditions are critical for near-term forecasts while longer-term climate projections are subject to assumptions on future climate drivers, such as changing greenhouse gas emissions. These predictions use physics-based models to represent the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, and land. These models simulate the evolution of environmental conditions on timescales of hours to centuries, and have skillfully predicted Arctic change. Innovative methods for simulation assessment, model development, and forecast initialization are allowing better integration of models and observations to advance predictions.
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Rights Information:Public Domain
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Compliance:Submitted
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