Rapid shelf-wide cooling response of a stratified coastal ocean to hurricanes

Seroka, Greg; Miles, Travis; Xu, Yi; Kohut, Josh; Schofield, Oscar; Glenn, Scott

doi:10.1002/2017JC012756

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Rapid shelf-wide cooling response of a stratified coastal ocean to hurricanes

2017
By Seroka, Greg ; Miles, Travis ; Xu, Yi ; ...
Source: Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 122(6), 4845-4867, 2017

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Journal Title:

Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans
Personal Author:

Seroka, Greg ; Miles, Travis ; Xu, Yi ; Kohut, Josh ; Schofield, Oscar ; ... More +

Seroka, Greg ; Miles, Travis ; Xu, Yi ; Kohut, Josh ; Schofield, Oscar ; Glenn, Scott Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

NWS (National Weather Service) ; OPC (Ocean Prediction Center) ; CINAR (Cooperative Institute for the North Atlantic Region) ; NOS (National Ocean Service)

NWS (National Weather Service) ; OPC (Ocean Prediction Center) ; CINAR (Cooperative Institute for the North Atlantic Region) ; NOS (National Ocean Service) Less -
Description:

Large uncertainty in the predicted intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs) persists compared to the steadily improving skill in the predicted TC tracks. This intensity uncertainty has its most significant implications in the coastal zone, where TC impacts to populated shorelines are greatest. Recent studies have demonstrated that rapid ahead-of-eye-center cooling of a stratified coastal ocean can have a significant impact on hurricane intensity forecasts. Using observation-validated, high-resolution ocean modeling, the stratified coastal ocean cooling processes observed in two U.S. Mid-Atlantic hurricanes were investigated: Hurricane Irene (2011)-with an inshore Mid-Atlantic Bight (MAB) track during the late summer stratified coastal ocean season-and Tropical Storm Barry (2007)-with an offshore track during early summer. For both storms, the critical ahead-of-eye-center depth-averaged force balance across the entire MAB shelf included an onshore wind stress balanced by an offshore pressure gradient. This resulted in onshore surface currents opposing offshore bottom currents that enhanced surface to bottom current shear and turbulent mixing across the thermocline, resulting in the rapid cooling of the surface layer ahead-of-eye-center. Because the same baroclinic and mixing processes occurred for two storms on opposite ends of the track and seasonal stratification envelope, the response appears robust. It will be critical to forecast these processes and their implications for a wide range of future storms using realistic 3-D coupled atmosphere-ocean models to lower the uncertainty in predictions of TC intensities and impacts and enable coastal populations to better respond to increasing rapid intensification threats in an era of rising sea levels.
Keywords:

[+]

Cyclones Mathematical Models Oceanography
Source:

Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 122(6), 4845-4867, 2017
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JC012756
Pubmed Central ID:

PMC5586363
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. NA11NOS0120038 ; Grant no. NA13OAR4830233

Grant no. NA11NOS0120038 ; Grant no. NA13OAR4830233 Less -
Place as Subject:

Mid-Atlantic Bight
Rights Information:

CC BY-NC-ND
Compliance:

PMC
Main Document Checksum:

[+]

urn:sha256:b5e71e143468aa358d5bf8f4292c71296b43d5be986b6a13a3c2cfd6a92f86ba
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/25337/noaa_25337_DS1.pdf
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Rapid shelf-wide cooling response of a stratified coastal ocean to hurricanes

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