Continuation of tropical Pacific Ocean temperature trend may weaken extreme El Nino and its linkage to the Southern Annular Mode

Lim, Eun-Pa; Hendon, Harry H.; Hope, Pandora; Chung, Christine; Delage, Francois; McPhaden, Michael J.

doi:10.1038/s41598-019-53371-3

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Continuation of tropical Pacific Ocean temperature trend may weaken extreme El Nino and its linkage to the Southern Annular Mode

2019
By Lim, Eun-Pa ; Hendon, Harry H. ; Hope, Pandora ; ...
Source: Scientific Reports 9 (17044)

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Journal Title:

Scientific Reports
Personal Author:

Lim, Eun-Pa ; Hendon, Harry H. ; Hope, Pandora ; Chung, Christine ; Delage, Francois ; ... More +

Lim, Eun-Pa ; Hendon, Harry H. ; Hope, Pandora ; Chung, Christine ; Delage, Francois ; McPhaden, Michael J. Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; PMEL (Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory)

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; PMEL (Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory) Less -
Description:

Observational records show that occurrences of the negative polarity of the Southern Annular Mode (low SAM) is significantly linked to El Nino during austral spring and summer, potentially providing long-lead predictability of the SAM and its associated surface climate conditions. In this study, we explore how this linkage may change under a scenario of a continuation of the ocean temperature trends that have been observed over the past 60 years, which are plausibly forced by increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. We generated coupled model seasonal forecasts for three recent extreme El Nino events by initialising the forecasts with observed ocean anomalies of 1 September 1982, 1997 and 2015 added into (1) the current ocean mean state and into (2) the ocean mean state updated to include double the recent ocean temperature trends. We show that the strength of extreme El Nino is reduced with the warmer ocean mean state as a result of reduced thermocline feedback and weakened rainfall-wind-sea surface temperature coupling over the tropical eastern Pacific. The El Nino-low SAM relationship also weakens, implying the possibility of reduced long-lead predictability of the SAM and associated surface climate impacts in the future.
Keywords:

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Atmospheric Physics El Niño Current Ocean-atmosphere Interaction
Source:

Scientific Reports 9 (17044)
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-53371-3
Pubmed Central ID:

PMC6864090
Document Type:

Journal Article
Place as Subject:

Pacific Ocean
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CC BY
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Submitted
Main Document Checksum:

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urn:sha256:ddca1fed589374ac48527509b3a076fae5d972df6520d7fcae3891ed72df406a
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/24107/noaa_24107_DS1.pdf
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Lim_SciRep_2019Corr.pdf

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