i
Multi-Annual Climate Predictions for Fisheries: An Assessment of Skill of Sea Surface Temperature Forecasts for Large Marine Ecosystems
-
2017
Source: Front. Mar. Sci., 30 June 2017
[PDF-4.05 MB]
Details:
-
Journal Title:Frontiers in Marine Science
-
Personal Author:
-
NOAA Program & Office:
-
Description:Decisions made by fishers and fisheries managers are informed by climate and fisheries observations that now often span more than 50 years. Multi-annual climate forecasts could further inform such decisions if they were skillful in predicting future conditions relative to the 50-year scope of past variability. We demonstrate that an existing multi-annual prediction system skillfully forecasts the probability of next year, the next 1–3 years, and the next 1–10 years being warmer or cooler than the 50-year average at the surface in coastal ecosystems. Probabilistic forecasts of upper and lower seas surface temperature (SST) terciles over the next 3 or 10 years from the GFDL CM 2.1 10-member ensemble global prediction system showed significant improvements in skill over the use of a 50-year climatology for most Large Marine Ecosystems (LMEs) in the North Atlantic, the western Pacific, and Indian oceans. Through a comparison of the forecast skill of initialized and uninitialized hindcasts, we demonstrate that this skill is largely due to the predictable signature of radiative forcing changes over the 50-year timescale rather than prediction of evolving modes of climate variability. North Atlantic LMEs stood out as the only coastal regions where initialization significantly contributed to SST prediction skill at the 1 to 10 year scale.
-
Keywords:
-
Source:Front. Mar. Sci., 30 June 2017
-
Document Type:
-
Rights Information:CC BY
-
Compliance:Submitted
-
Main Document Checksum:urn:sha256:d96094eec71137483a3fc551b1f772d64a61038bca598c5fd1b0ebe004f5fefc
-
File Type:
Supporting Files
-
No Additional Files
More +
Related Documents
-
Personal Author:Judd, Laura M. ;Al-Saadi, Jassim A....2018 | Front. Environ. Sci., 15 August 2018Description:With the near-future launch of geostationary Earth orbit (GEO) pollution monitoring satellite instruments over North America, East Asia, and Europe, t...Personal Author:Farfan, Gabriela A. ;Cordes, Erik E....2018 | Front. Mar. Sci., 10 December 2018Description:In an ocean with rapidly changing chemistry, studies have assessed coral skeletal health under projected ocean acidification (OA) scenarios by charact...Personal Author:Simoniello, Christina ;Jencks, Jennifer...2019 | Front. Mar. Sci., 07 May 2019Description:The democratization of ocean observation has the potential to add millions of observations every day. Though not a solution for all ocean monitoring n...Personal Author:Courtney, Travis A. ;Andersson, Andreas J....2016 | Frontiers in Marine Science, 3(181).Description:Coral reef net ecosystem calcification (NEC) has decreased for many Caribbean reefs over recent decades primarily due to changes in benthic community ...Personal Author:Chung, Anne E. ;Wedding, Lisa M....2019 | Front. Mar. Sci., 19 March 2019Description:Coral reef managers currently face the challenge of mitigating global stressors by enhancing local ecological resilience in a changing climate. Effect...Personal Author:Goergen, Elizabeth A. ;Moulding, Alison L....2019 | Front. Mar. Sci., 12 February 2019Description:Corals, specifically the Atlantic staghorn coral, Acropora cervicornis, are under major threat as disturbance events such as storms and disease and pr...Personal Author:Lee, Zhongping ;Shang, Shaoling...2018 | Front. Mar. Sci., 30 January 2018Description:Commonly we see the diffuse attenuation coefficient of downwelling irradiance (Kd) expressed as a sum of the contributions of various constituents. We...Personal Author:Smith, Tyler B. ;Brandtneris, Viktor W....2016 | Front. Mar. Sci., 29 June 2016Description:Mesophotic coral ecosystems are extensive light-dependent habitats that typically form between 30 and 150 m depth in the tropical oceans. The forces t...Personal Author:Lin, Chih-Hsien ;Flynn, Kevin J....2018 | Front. Mar. Sci., 10 September 2018Description:Results from a dynamic mathematical model are presented simulating the growth of the harmful algal bloom (HAB) mixotrophic dinoflagellate Karlodinium ...Personal Author:Stauffer, Beth A. ;Bowers, Holly A....2019 | Front. Mar. Sci., 16 July 2019Description:Recurrent blooms of harmful algae and cyanobacteria (HABs) plague many coastal and inland waters throughout the United States and have significant soc...Personal Author:Benway, Heather M. ;Lorenzoni, Laura...2019 | Front. Mar. Sci., 12 July 2019Description:Sustained ocean time series are critical for characterizing marine ecosystem shifts in a time of accelerating, and at times unpredictable, changes. Th...Personal Author:Martin, Summer L. ;Ballance, Lisa T....2016 | Front. Mar. Sci., 27 April 2016Description:The ocean provides ecosystem services (ES) that support humanity. Traditional single-issue management largely failed to protect the full suite of ES. ...Personal Author:Goertz, Caroline E. C. ;Reichmuth, Colleen...2019 | Front. Vet. Sci., 06 February 2019Description:Bearded (Erignathus barbatus), ringed (Pusa hispida), spotted (Phoca largha), and ribbon (Histriophoca fasciata) seals rely on seasonal sea-ice in Arc...Personal Author:Cross, Jessica N. ;Turner, Jessie A....2019 | Front. Mar. Sci., 02 July 2019Description:Ocean acidification (OA) describes the progressive decrease in the pH of seawater and other cascading chemical changes resulting from oceanic uptake o...Personal Author:Terlouw, Gerianne J. ;Knor, Lucie A. C. M....2019 | Front. Mar. Sci., 07 May 2019Description:A statistical evaluation of nearly 10 years of high-resolution surface seawater carbon dioxide partial pressure (pCO2) time-series data collected from...Personal Author:Zellmer, Amanda J. ;Claisse, Jeremy T....2019 | Front. Mar. Sci., 12 February 2019Description:Habitat restoration is an important tool for managing degraded ecosystems, yet the success of restoration projects depends in part on adequately ident...Personal Author:Wildermann, Natalie E. ;Sasso, Christopher R....2019 | Front. Mar. Sci., 28 March 2019Description:Multi-species conservation strategies can be useful to maximize allocation of resources. To effectively plan for multi-species management practices, i...The Effects of Anthropogenic Stressors on Reproduction and Recruitment of Corals and Reef OrganismsCitePersonal Author:Richmond, Robert H. ;Tisthammer, Kaho H....2018 | Front. Mar. Sci., 02 July 2018Description:The persistence of populations of marine organisms depends on the success of the dual processes of reproduction and recruitment. The production of off...Personal Author:Roman, Michael R. ;Brandt, Stephen B....2019 | Front. Mar. Sci., 22 March 2019Description:Hypoxia, triggered in large part by eutrophication, exerts widespread and expanding stress on coastal ecosystems. Hypoxia is often specifically define...Personal Author:Moisan, Tiffany A. ;Rufty, Kay M....2017 | Front. Mar. Sci., 19 June 2017Description:Phytoplankton functional diversity plays a key role in structuring the ocean carbon cycle and can be estimated using measurements of phytoplankton fun...
More +
You May Also Like
Personal Author:
Schenkel, B.A. ;
Noble, C.
...
2023 | Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 12 (2023) 151–164
Description:
This review article summarizes the current understanding and recent updates to tropical cyclone outer size and structure forecasting and research prim...
2024 | Fish and Fisheries, 25, 38–59
Description:
Both the ecological and social dimensions of fisheries are being affected by climate change. As a result, policymakers, managers, scientists and fishi...
Checkout today's featured content at repository.library.noaa.gov