2016. TRAC Eastern Georges Bank Cod Status Report 2016/01

Combined Canada/USA catches were 608 mt, including 25 mt of discards in the 2015 calendar year. The estimated adult population biomass at the beginning of 2016 from the Virtual Population Analysis (VPA) “M 0.8” model was 11,026 mt. Recruitment at age 1 has been low in recent years, with the 2003 year class remaining the highest estimated recruitment since 2000. The 2010 year class at age 1 is equivalent to two-thirds of the 2003 year class based on the 2016 assessment. The current estimate of the 2013 year class is 4.4 million fish. A suite of indicators derived solely from survey and fishery data were summarized. Briefly, average survey biomass shows no evidence of rebuilding, and recruitment has been poor forthe last 25 years. Relative F has declined since 1995, although total Z has remained high. Fishing mortality (ages 4-9) in 2015 was estimated to be 0.05. In recent years, ages 6+ are not fully selected by the fishery. In 2015, ages 3-4 were fully recruited. Consequently, the F4-9 cannot be directly compared to F=0.11, so it is difficult to conclude whether we are achieving low risk of exceeding F=0.11. Average weight at length, used to reflect condition, declined throughout the time series, but has started to show improvement since 2009. Lower weights at age in the population in recent years, a truncated age structure, poor recruitment and high total mortality have contributed to the lack of rebuilding. A projection was made that considered a constant F approach consistent with the Transboundary Management Guidance Committee (TMGC) harvest strategy to reduce F to promote rebuilding when stock conditions are poor, and the empirical approach yielded a range of potential catch advice. For the 2017 quota, consistent with catch advice from both approaches, TRAC recommends an upper bound of 700 mt, which reflects precision associated with both lines of evidence.

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