Diverse policy implications for future ozone and surface UV in a changing climate

Butler, A H; Daniel, J S; Portmann, R W; Ravishankara, A R; Young, P J; Fahey, D W; Rosenlof, K H

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/6/064017

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The NOAA IR serves as an archival repository of NOAA-published products including scientific findings, journal articles, guidelines, recommendations, or other information authored or co-authored by NOAA or funded partners. As a repository, the NOAA IR retains documents in their original published format to ensure public access to scientific information.

i

Diverse policy implications for future ozone and surface UV in a changing climate

2016
By Butler, A H ; Daniel, J S ; Portmann, R W ; ...
Source: Environmental Research Letters, 11(6), 064017.

[PDF-1.33 MB]

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Journal Title:

Environmental Research Letters
Personal Author:

Butler, A H ; Daniel, J S ; Portmann, R W ; Ravishankara, A R ; Young, P J ; ... More +

Butler, A H ; Daniel, J S ; Portmann, R W ; Ravishankara, A R ; Young, P J ; Fahey, D W ; Rosenlof, K H Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; ESRL (Earth System Research Laboratory) ; CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences) ; CSL (Chemical Sciences Laboratory)

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; ESRL (Earth System Research Laboratory) ; CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences) ; CSL (Chemical Sciences Laboratory) Less -
Description:

Due to the success of the Montreal Protocol in limiting emissions of ozone-depleting substances, concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, and methane will control the evolution of total column and stratospheric ozone by the latter half of the 21st century. As the world proceeds down the path of reducing climate forcing set forth by the 2015 Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP 21), a broad range of ozone changes are possible depending on future policies enacted. While decreases in tropical stratospheric ozone will likely persist regardless of the future emissions scenario, extratropical ozone could either remain weakly depleted or even increase well above historical levels, with diverse implication for ultraviolet (UV) radiation. The ozone layer's dependence on future emissions of these gases creates a complex policy decision space for protecting humans and ecosystems, which includes unexpected options such as accepting nitrous oxide emissions in order to maintain historical column ozone and surface UV levels.
Source:

Environmental Research Letters, 11(6), 064017.
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/6/064017
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Journal Article
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urn:sha256:1624fffb2de232f719afcb6e22213cc92dfc600754477b95d2245222f976433b
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Diverse policy implications for future ozone and surface UV in a changing climate

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