i
Predictability and Prediction of Southern California Rains during Strong El Nino Events: A Focus on the Failed 2016 Winter Rains
-
2018
Source: Journal of Climate, 31(2), 555-574.
Select the Download button to view the document
This document is over 5mb in size and cannot be previewed
Details:
-
Journal Title:Journal of Climate
-
Personal Author:
-
NOAA Program & Office:
-
Description:The failed Southern California (SCAL) winter rains during the 2015/16 strong El Nino came as a surprise and a disappointment. Similarities were drawn to very wet winters during several historical strong El Nino events, leading to heightened expectations that SCAL's multiyear drought would abate in 2016. Ensembles of atmospheric model simulations and coupled model seasonal forecasts are diagnosed to determine both the potential predictability and actual prediction skill of the failed rains, with a focus on understanding the striking contrast of SCAL precipitation between the 2016 and 1998 strong El Nino events. The ensemble mean of simulations indicates that the December-February 2016 winter dryness was not a response to global boundary forcings, which instead generated a wet SCAL signal. Nor was the extreme magnitude of observed 1998 wetness entirely reconcilable with a boundary-forced signal, indicating it was not a particularly precise analog for 2016. Furthermore, model simulations indicate the SCAL 2016 wet signal was 20%-50% less intense than its simulated 1998 counterpart. Such a weaker signal was captured in November 2015 initialized seasonal forecasts, indicating dynamical model skill in predicting a less prolific 2016 rainy season and a capability to forewarn that 2016 would not likely experience the flooding rains of 1998. Analysis of ensemble spread indicates that 2016 dryness was an extreme climate event having less than 5% likelihood in the presence of 2016 global forcings, even though its probability of occurrence was 3-4 times greater in 2016 compared to 1998. Therefore, the failed seasonal rains themselves are argued to be primarily a symptom of subseasonal variability unrelated to boundary forcings whose predictability remains to be explored.
-
Source:Journal of Climate, 31(2), 555-574.
-
Document Type:
-
Rights Information:Other
-
Compliance:Submitted
-
Main Document Checksum:urn:sha256:98a27943c819cbd91ae6f1f6f49074a07876642802ebbee7af8e204a34b2cfa2
-
File Type:
Supporting Files
-
No Additional Files
More +
Related Documents
-
- File Format:
- RIS
- File Format:
- RIS
- File Format:
- RIS
- File Format:
- RIS
- File Format:
- RIS
- File Format:
- RIS
- File Format:
- RIS
- File Format:
- RIS
- File Format:
- RIS
- File Format:
- RIS
- File Format:
- RIS
- File Format:
- RIS
- File Format:
- RIS
- File Format:
- RIS
- File Format:
- RIS
- File Format:
- RIS
- File Format:
- RIS
Injection of lightning-produced NOx, water vapor, wildfire emissions, and stratospheric air to the UT/LS as observed from DC3 measurementsCitePersonal Author:Huntrieser, H. ;Lichtenstern, M....2016 | Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 121(11), 6638-6668.Description:During the Deep Convective Clouds and Chemistry (DC3) experiment in summer 2012, airborne measurements were performed in the anvil inflow/outflow of t...Personal Author:Jordan, C. E. ;Pszenny, A. A. P....2015 | Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 120(2), 678-694.Description:The Nitrogen, Aerosol Composition, and Halogens on a Tall Tower campaign (February-March 2011) near Boulder, Colorado, investigated nighttime ClNO2 pr...The Optical Autocovariance Wind Lidar. Part II: Green OAWL (GrOAWL) Airborne Performance and ValidationCitePersonal Author:Baidar, S. ;Tucker, S. C....2018 | Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, 35(10), 2099-2116.Description:A two-look airborne Doppler wind lidar operating at the 532-nm laser wavelength, the Green Optical Autocovariance Wind Lidar (GrOAWL), was built and f...Characteristic Atmospheric Radiative Heating Rate Profiles in Arctic Clouds as Observed at Barrow, AlaskaCitePersonal Author:Turner, D. D. ;Shupe, M. D....2018 | Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 57(4), 953-968.Description:A 2-yr cloud microphysical property dataset derived from ground-based remote sensors at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement site near Barrow, Alaska...How Well Are Clouds Simulated over Greenland in Climate Models? Consequences for the Surface Cloud Radiative Effect over the Ice SheetCitePersonal Author:Lacour, A. ;Chepfer, H....2018 | Journal of Climate, 31(22), 9293-9312.Description:Using lidar and radiative flux observations from space and ground, and a lidar simulator, we evaluate clouds simulated by climate models over the Gree...The effect of atmospheric sulfate reductions on diffuse radiation and photosynthesis in the United States during 1995-2013CitePersonal Author:Keppel-Aleks, G. ;Washenfelder, R. A.2016 | Geophysical Research Letters, 43(18), 9984-9993.Description:Aerosol optical depth (AOD) has been shown to influence the global carbon sink by increasing the fraction of diffuse light, which increases photosynth...Non-OH chemistry in oxidation flow reactors for the study of atmospheric chemistry systematically examined by modelingCite2016 | Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 16(7), 4283-4305.Description:Oxidation flow reactors (OFRs) using low-pressure Hg lamp emission at 185 and 254 nm produce OH radicals efficiently and are widely used in atmospheri...Agricultural fires in the southeastern US during SEAC(4)RS: Emissions of trace gases and particles and evolution of ozone, reactive nitrogen, and organic aerosolCitePersonal Author:Liu, Xiaoxi ;Zhang, Y....2016 | Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 121(12), 7383-7414.Description:Emissions from 15 agricultural fires in the southeastern U.S. were measured from the NASA DC-8 research aircraft during the summer 2013 Studies of Emi...Challenges and Opportunities for Data Assimilation in Mountainous EnvironmentsCite2018 | Atmosphere, 9(4), 13.Description:This contribution aims to summarize the current state of data assimilation research as applied to land and atmosphere simulation and prediction in mou...Explicit Convection and Scale-Aware Cumulus Parameterizations: High-Resolution Simulations over Areas of Different Topography in GermanyCitePersonal Author:Wagner, Andreas ;Heinzeller, Dominikus...2018 | Monthly Weather Review, 146(6), 1925-1944.Description:An increase in the spatial resolution of regional climate model simulations improves the representation of land surface characteristics and may allow ...Source Partitioning of Methane Emissions and its Seasonality in the US MidwestCite2018 | Journal of Geophysical Research-Biogeosciences, 123(2), 646-659.Description:The methane (CH4) budget and its source partitioning are poorly constrained in the Midwestern United States. We used tall tower (185m) aerodynamic flu...Strong Contrast in Remote Black Carbon Aerosol Loadings Between the Atlantic and Pacific BasinsCite2018 | Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 123(23), 13386-13395.Description:Measurements of black carbon (BC) aerosol mass concentration in remote air are sparse, leading to poorly constrained regions that models struggle to r...Does vapor pressure deficit drive the seasonality of delta C-13 of the net land-atmosphere CO2 exchange across the United States?Cite2017 | Journal of Geophysical Research-Biogeosciences, 122(8), 1969-1987.Description:The seasonal pattern of the carbon isotope content (delta C-13) of atmospheric CO2 depends on local and nonlocal land-atmosphere exchange and atmosphe...Calibration and field testing of cavity ring-down laser spectrometers measuring CH4, CO2, and delta(CH4)-C-13 deployed on towers in the Marcellus Shale regionCite2018 | Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, 11(3), 1273-1295.Description:Four in situ cavity ring-down spectrometers (G2132-i, Picarro, Inc.) measuring methane dry mole fraction (CH4), carbon dioxide dry mole fraction (CO2)...Episodic Reversal of Autumn Ice Advance Caused by Release of Ocean Heat in the Beaufort SeaCite2018 | Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans, 123(5), 3164-3185.Description:High-resolution measurements of the air-ice-ocean system during an October 2015 event in the Beaufort Sea demonstrate how stored ocean heat can be rel...Seasonal ozone vertical profiles over North America using the AQMEII3 group of air quality models: model inter-comparison and stratospheric intrusionsCite2018 | Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 18(19), 13925-13945.Description:This study evaluates simulated vertical ozone profiles produced in the framework of the third phase of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International ...Near-Surface Refractory Black Carbon Observations in the Atmosphere and Snow in the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica, and Potential Impacts of Foehn WindsCite2018 | Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 123(5), 2877-2887.Description:Measurements of light-absorbing particles in the boundary layer of the high southern latitudes are scarce, particularly in the McMurdo Dry Valleys (MD...Personal Author:Mattila, James M. ;Brophy, Patrick...2018 | Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 18(16), 12315-12327.Description:We measured organic and inorganic gas-phase acids in the Front Range of Colorado to better understand their tropospheric sources and sinks using a hig...Emissions of nitrogen-containing organic compounds from the burning of herbaceous and arboraceous biomass: Fuel composition dependence and the variability of commonly used nitrile tracersCitePersonal Author:Coggon, Matthew M. ;Veres, Patrick R....2016 | Geophysical Research Letters, 43(18), 9903-9912.Description:Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) emitted from residential wood and crop residue burning were measured in Colorado, U.S. When compared to the emission...
More +