Details:

Journal Title:
Climate Risk Management
Personal Author:
Jacobs, John ; Moore, Stephanie K. ; Kunkel, Kenneth E. ; Sun, Liqiang
Jacobs, John ; Moore, Stephanie K. ; Kunkel, Kenneth E. ; Sun, Liqiang Less -
NOAA Program & Office:
CICS (Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites) ; NOS (National Ocean Service) ; NCCOS (National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science) ; NMFS (National Marine Fisheries Service) ; NWFSC (Northwest Fisheries Science Center) ; ... More +
CICS (Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites) ; NOS (National Ocean Service) ; NCCOS (National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science) ; NMFS (National Marine Fisheries Service) ; NWFSC (Northwest Fisheries Science Center) ; NESDIS (National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service) ; NCEI (National Centers for Environmental Information) Less -
Description:
Climate change is expected to alter coastal ecosystems in ways which may have predictable consequences for the seasonality and geographical distribution of human pathogens and harmful algae. Here we demonstrate relatively simple approaches for evaluating the risk of occurrence of pathogenic bacteria in the genus Vibrio and outbreaks of toxin-producing harmful algae in the genus Alexandrium, with estimates of uncertainty, in U.S. coastal waters under future climate change scenarios through the end of the 21st century. One approach forces empirical models of growth, abundance and the probability of occurrence of the pathogens and algae at specific locations in the Chesapeake Bay and Puget Sound with ensembles of statistically downscaled climate model projections to produce first order assessments of changes in seasonality. In all of the case studies examined, the seasonal window of occurrence for Vibrio and Alexandrium broadened, indicating longer annual periods of time when there is increased risk for outbreaks. A second approach uses climate model projections coupled with GIS to identify the potential for geographic range shifts for Vibrio spp. in the coastal waters of Alaska. These two approaches could be applied to other coastal pathogens that have climate sensitive drivers to investigate potential changes to the risk of outbreaks in both time (seasonality) and space (geographical distribution) under future climate change scenarios.
Keywords:
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Alexandrium Climate Change Harmful Algal Blooms Vibrio
Source:
Climate Risk Management, 8, 16-27.
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2015.03.002
Document Type:
Journal Article
Funding:
Grant no. NA09NES4400006
Rights Information:
CC BY
Compliance:
Submitted
Main Document Checksum:
[+]
urn:sha256:24c0b7233ec6636e8b770de4ac3cd09ac5b4120b6d483d557837b4ddc440208e
Download URL:
https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/20386/noaa_20386_DS1.pdf
File Type:

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