| Assessment of the Western Gulf of Mexico Harmful Algal Bloom Operational Forecast System (GOMX HAB-OFS) : a comparative analysis of forecast skill and utilization from October 1, 2010 to April 30, 2014 - :14436 | National Ocean Service (NOS)
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Assessment of the Western Gulf of Mexico Harmful Algal Bloom Operational Forecast System (GOMX HAB-OFS) : a comparative analysis of forecast skill and utilization from October 1, 2010 to April 30, 2014
  • Published Date:
    2015
Filetype[PDF-4.04 MB]


Details:
  • Corporate Authors:
    Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services (U.S.)
  • Description:
    "This report provides an evaluation of the HAB-OFS products issued for Texas during the bloom years from October 1, 2010 to April 30, 2014, with comparisons to those issued for Florida where possible (Kavanaugh, et al., 2013). A bloom year (BY) refers to the time period from May 1, XXXX to April 30, YYYY, where BY2010-2011 spans the period from May 1, 2010 to April 30, 2011 and so on. This time period was selected to capture the typical initiation and termination period of K. brevis blooms in the Gulf of Mexico, enabling interannual comparisons. The first bloom year only spans from October 1 rather than May 1 because the Texas HAB-OFS was not operational until October 1, 2010. The analysis includes an assessment of bulletin utilization, early warning capability, and forecast quality (i.e. accuracy, reliability, and skill). Previous publications have detailed the technology, models, and procedures that underlie the Texas HAB-OFS (Stumpf, et al., 2003; Tomlinson, et al., 2004; Wynne, Stumpf, Tomlinson, Ransibrahmankul, & Villareal, 2005). The results of this assessment will be used to guide enhancements to the operational forecast system with the goal of improving forecast quality through increased scientific understanding and the refinement of forecast models. Some of the recommendations may also be applicable to the HAB-OFS in the eastern Gulf of Mexico"--Objective (page 2).

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