A weather-regime-dependent metric for verifying spread-error relationship : Ensemble Performance Index for High-Impact Weather (EPI4HIW)

Details

• Personal Author:
  Du, Jun ; Levit, Jason
• Corporate Authors:
  United States. National Weather Service. Office of Modelling and Development
• NOAA Program & Office:
  NWS (National Weather Service) ; NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) ; OMD (Office of Modeling and Development)
• Description:
  The spread-error relationship is a crucial measure for an Ensemble Prediction System (EPS). It is found that existing metrics for verifying this relationship are unable to reflect the full picture and can even provide misleading information. This study proposes a new weather-regime-dependent verification metric: Ensemble Performance Index for High-Impact Weather (EPI4HIW). It treats spread and error as a compound variable and correlates them with weather patterns. It quantitatively describes the spatial structure of the spread-error relationship.
• Series:
  Office note (United States. National Weather Service. Office of Modelling and Development) ; 3
• DOI:
  https://doi.org/10.25923/wqaa-ye21
• Format:
  pdf
• Document Type:
  Office Note
• Place as Subject:
  United States
• License:
  https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/
• Rights Information:
  CC0 Public Domain
• Compliance:
  Submitted
• Download URL:
  https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/74091/noaa_74091_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 8.55 MB]
• Collection(s):
  National Weather Service (NWS)
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha-512:96fff1e2f996d64aaea5b4900b9fe12917802cb14c1c9f13b3c5760af9c7469df1ecc67e9bdcff80146698ff044f83ba6de2a71dcb8f634bf897e57138521f86