Socioeconomic risk of coastal Alaskan fishing communities to climate-driven changes in Pacific cod distributions

Details

• Journal Title:
  ICES Journal of Marine Science
• Personal Author:
  Stone, Sarah E ; Wise, Sarah ; Harte, Michael ; Holsman, Kirstin ; Ciannelli, Lorenzo
• NOAA Program & Office:
  NMFS (National Marine Fisheries Service) ; AFSC (Alaska Fisheries Science Center)
• Description:
  Rising ocean temperatures and other climate impact drivers are altering the abundance and distribution of economically and culturally important marine species. In the Eastern Bering Sea, climate change threatens communities through reduced economic opportunities and food security in fishing-reliant areas. We apply a risk assessment framework integrated with statistical modelling and regionally downscaled ocean models to hindcast and project the distribution of adult and juvenile Pacific cod abundance in the Eastern Bering Sea under two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5), leveraging commercial fisheries catch data and publicly available socioeconomic information to assess the exposure and sensitivity of Alaska fishing communities’ to the geographical redistribution of Pacific cod. To compare risk among seven federally recognized Alaska census areas, we adapt a recognized framework that integrates hazards, sensitivity, and exposure as equally weighted components of risk. To assess how distributions and relative risk may shift from both historic and more recent abnormal environmental conditions, we compare future projections against two contrasting climate baselines: a ‘normal’ period (1980–2000) and a recent abnormally warm period (warm years post-2000). Projections of Pacific cod distributions across multiple climate scenarios indicate a progressive shift in abundance from the southern to the northern Eastern Bering Sea. The extent of this geographical change, coupled with lower adaptive capacity and higher dependence on this fish as a resource, results in heightened risk for southern Eastern Bering Sea communities. Our findings highlight the need for adaptive, place-based fisheries management strategies that are tailored to regional sensitivities to projected shifts in marine resources under a changing climate.
• Source:
  ICES Journal of Marine Science, 82(7)
• DOI:
  https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsaf127
• ISSN:
  1054-3139 ; 1095-9289
• Format:
  pdf
• Publisher:
  Oxford University Press (OUP)
• Document Type:
  Journal Article
• License:
  https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
• Rights Information:
  CC BY
• Compliance:
  Submitted
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha-512:e6c09dc47e0999e2058632e394683a6afedbb2fe95dc1fbcbe7d2d5316d8ffec0c6ccb4af735d28d69da6ebe1e4ef1bf1db92e7db064cb836c16fef47bacf1f4
• Download URL:
  https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/72233/noaa_72233_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 3.56 MB ]