Creation and Use of Automated Storm-Based Probabilistic Hazard Information for National Weather Service Forecasting and Warnings

Calhoun, Kristin M.; Satrio, Clarice; Steeves, Rebecca; Sandmæl, Thea; Campbell, P. Adrian; Berry, Kodi L.

doi:10.25923/fpgn-1456

i

Creation and Use of Automated Storm-Based Probabilistic Hazard Information for National Weather Service Forecasting and Warnings

2025
By Calhoun, Kristin M. ; Satrio, Clarice ; Steeves, Rebecca ; ...

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Personal Author:

Calhoun, Kristin M. ; Satrio, Clarice ; Steeves, Rebecca ; Sandmæl, Thea ; Campbell, P. Adrian ; Berry, Kodi L.
Corporate Authors:

National Severe Storms Laboratory. ; Cooperative Institute for Severe and High-Impact Weather Research and Operations.
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; NSSL (National Severe Storms Laboratory) ; CIWRO (Cooperative Institute for Severe and High-Impact Weather Research and Operations)
Description:

Experiments in the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) have shown that storm-based Probabilistic Hazard Information (PHI) can support forecasters in making more effective shortterm forecasts and warning decisions (e.g., Karstens et al. 2015, 2018; Calhoun et al. 2024). PHI integrates data from multiple platforms and algorithms to generate storm-based probabilities of individual hazards along with projected storm tracks (Fig. 1). Forecasters have used PHI to assess storm trends, improve situational awareness and confidence during operations, and guide severe thunderstorm and tornado warning decisions. In addition, PHI shows promise for increasing both consistency and accuracy of NWS warnings.
Keywords:

Automation Natural Disaster Warning Systems Probabilities Weather Forecasting Natural Disaster Warning Systems Weather Forecasting
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.25923/fpgn-1456
Format:

pdf
Document Type:

Technical Report
Place as Subject:

United States
Name as Subject:

National Severe Storms Laboratory. ; Cooperative Institute for Severe and High-Impact Weather Research and Operations.
License:

https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/
Rights Information:

CC0 Public Domain
Compliance:

Submitted
Main Document Checksum:

urn:sha-512:a9b2431e52908e03e0d5abd18fa2fd8975920ceb1b65f23403b53b19204480a85cbfef365da1c3924ae8220b28fab2f7e066882096ebe8de9ed85569cad55ef2
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/71712/noaa_71712_DS1.pdf
File Type:

[PDF - 2.49 MB ]

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