Radiative forcing from the 2020 shipping fuel regulation is large but hard to detect

Zhang, Jianhao; Chen, Yao-Sheng; Gryspeerdt, Edward; Yamaguchi, Takanobu; Feingold, Graham

doi:10.1038/s43247-024-01911-9

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Radiative forcing from the 2020 shipping fuel regulation is large but hard to detect

2025
By Zhang, Jianhao ; Chen, Yao-Sheng ; Gryspeerdt, Edward ; ...

Details

Journal Title:

Communications Earth & Environment
Personal Author:

Zhang, Jianhao ; Chen, Yao-Sheng ; Gryspeerdt, Edward ; Yamaguchi, Takanobu ; Feingold, Graham
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences) ; CSL (Chemical Sciences Laboratory)
Description:

Reduction in aerosol cooling unmasks greenhouse gas warming, exacerbating the rate of future warming. The strict sulfur regulation on shipping fuel implemented in 2020 (IMO2020) presents an opportunity to assess the potential impacts of such emission regulations and the detectability of deliberate aerosol perturbations for climate intervention. Here we employ machine learning to capture cloud natural variability and estimate a radiative forcing of +0.074 ±0.005 W m−2 related to IMO2020 associated with changes in shortwave cloud radiative effect over three low-cloud regions where shipping routes prevail. We find low detectability of the cloud radiative effect of this event, attributed to strong natural variability in cloud albedo and cloud cover. Regionally, detectability is higher for the southeastern Atlantic stratocumulus deck. These results raise concerns that future reductions in aerosol emissions will accelerate warming and that proposed deliberate aerosol perturbations such as marine cloud brightening will need to be substantial in order to overcome the low detectability.
Source:

Communications Earth & Environment, 6(1)
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01911-9
ISSN:

2662-4435
Format:

pdf
Publisher:

Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. NA22OAR4320151
License:

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Rights Information:

CC BY
Compliance:

Submitted
Main Document Checksum:

urn:sha-512:803dd2b8c5816e0c405976a48dcccf55cbcd4d9d57a6de9ee1b4c781ffb6302472246f32cb76bdbc6aaeb424908b9a496c52648dbd8fe65cf5c1762599bd13fd
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/71536/noaa_71536_DS1.pdf
File Type:

[PDF - 1.70 MB ]

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