Shifts of future tropical cyclone genesis date in north atlantic and north pacific basins: an ensemble modeling investigation

Xi, Dazhi; Murakami, Hiroyuki; Lin, Ning; Oppenheimer, Michael

doi:10.1038/s41612-025-01077-x

i

Shifts of future tropical cyclone genesis date in north atlantic and north pacific basins: an ensemble modeling investigation

2025
By Xi, Dazhi ; Murakami, Hiroyuki ; Lin, Ning ; ...

Details

Journal Title:

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
Personal Author:

Xi, Dazhi ; Murakami, Hiroyuki ; Lin, Ning ; Oppenheimer, Michael
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory)
Description:

Changes in the tropical cyclone (TC) seasonal cycle can have profound impacts on compound hazards associated with TCs, such as consecutive summer rainfall and TC-heatwave compound events. However, only a few studies have explored future changes in TC seasonality, and they reach discrepant conclusions. In this study, we perform a high-resolution coupled climate simulation to study the future TC seasonal cycle and investigate the mechanisms of possible changes. The model simulation shows that, under the shared socio-economic pathway 5 8.5 scenario, the mean genesis date will shift significantly to later in the season in Northeastern Pacific (ENP) and North Atlantic (NA) but shift to later or earlier depending on the subregions in Northwestern Pacific (WNP). These shifts in TC seasonal cycles are induced by seasonally asymmetric changes in TC-favorable environmental conditions, which arise from seasonally asymmetric changes in large-scale circulation patterns, including the monsoon troughs, jet stream, and tropical zonal circulation.
Source:

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 8(1)
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01077-x
ISSN:

2397-3722
Format:

PDF
Publisher:

Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. NA23OAR4320198
License:

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Rights Information:

CC BY-NC-ND
Compliance:

Submitted
Main Document Checksum:

urn:sha-512:33760a9eb338ac0d2db6559c32aeaef23f8cf1666ee3c90ae5a3c8706132c6c996b940092dbb3a5b7e6781e0ebc8973b2767f383928ee02377c6398c4874029a
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/71093/noaa_71093_DS1.pdf
File Type:

[PDF - 3.02 MB ]

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