Tropical cyclone activity affected by volcanically induced ITCZ shifts

Pausata, Francesco S. R.; Camargo, Suzana J.

doi:10.1073/pnas.1900777116

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Tropical cyclone activity affected by volcanically induced ITCZ shifts

2019
By Pausata, Francesco S. R. ; Camargo, Suzana J.
Source: PNAS 116 (16) 7732-7737; https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1900777116

[PDF-1.98 MB]

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Journal Title:

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Personal Author:

Pausata, Francesco S. R. ; Camargo, Suzana J.

Pausata, Francesco S. R. ; Camargo, Suzana J. Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CPO (Climate Program Office)

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CPO (Climate Program Office) Less -
Description:

Volcanic eruptions can affect global climate through changes in atmospheric and ocean circulation, and therefore could impact tropical cyclone (TC) activity. Here, we use ensemble simulations performed with an Earth System Model to investigate the impact of strong volcanic eruptions occurring in the tropical Northern (NH) and Southern (SH) Hemisphere on the large-scale environmental factors that affect TCs. Such eruptions cause a strong asymmetrical hemispheric cooling, either in the NH or SH, which shifts the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) southward or northward, respectively. The ITCZ shift and the associated surface temperature anomalies then cause changes to the genesis potential indices and TC potential intensity. The effect of the volcanic eruptions on the ITCZ and hence on TC activity lasts for at least 4 years. Finally, our analysis suggests that volcanic eruptions do not lead to an overall global reduction in TC activity but rather a redistribution following the ITCZ movement. On the other hand, the volcanically induced changes in El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) or sea-surface temperature do not seem to have a significant impact on TC activity as previously suggested.
Keywords:

[+]

Circulation El-nino ENSO Eruptions; Variability Frequency Genesis Factors Intensity ITCZ Pacific Responses Science Technology Tropical Cyclones
Source:

PNAS 116 (16) 7732-7737; https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1900777116
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1900777116
Pubmed ID:

30936316
Pubmed Central ID:

PMC6475424
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. NA15OAR4310095 ; Grant no. NA16OAR4310079

Grant no. NA15OAR4310095 ; Grant no. NA16OAR4310079 Less -
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PMC
Main Document Checksum:

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urn:sha256:bfceba113a97d525e8c6a6e1fd137490ce2e1a5b72bc14d42d0fb424c432d070
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https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/29203/noaa_29203_DS1.pdf
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Tropical cyclone activity affected by volcanically induced ITCZ shifts

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