Climate vulnerability assessment of fish and invertebrates in the U.S. South Atlantic large marine ecosystem

Details

• Journal Title:
  PLOS Climate
• Personal Author:
  Craig, J. Kevin ; Runde, Brendan J. ; Bacheler, Nathan M. ; Burton, Michael L. ; Muñoz, Roldan C. ; Quinlan, John A. ; Nelson, Mark W. ; Binion-Rock, Samantha M. ; Kellison, G. Todd ; Smith, Joseph W. ; Laney, R. Wilson ; Sedberry, George R. ; Morley, James W. ; Poland, Stephen J. ; Brodie, Russell ; Gentry, Lauren ; Gore, Karla ; Rock, Jason E. ; Johnson, Matthew W. ; Flowers, Jared ; Collier, Chip
• NOAA Program & Office:
  NMFS (National Marine Fisheries Service) ; SEFSC (Southeast Fisheries Science Center) ; SER (Southeast Region)
• Description:
  Trait-based climate vulnerability assessment (CVA) is a rapid and repeatable approach to simultaneously assess the vulnerability of a large number of species to projected regional changes in climate. We conducted the first CVA in the U.S. South Atlantic Large Marine Ecosystem for 71 ecologically, economically, and culturally important fish and invertebrate species. The CVA was conducted by a 16-member panel based on scoring 12 biological sensitivity attributes and seven climate exposure factors. About two-thirds of the species were considered highly vulnerability to future climate projected under the RCP 8.5 emissions scenario, with diadromous species, invertebrates, and deepwater reef fishes the most vulnerable functional groups. Ocean acidification, sea surface temperature, and salinity were the exposure factors with the greatest influence on climate vulnerability, while population growth rate, population status, and early life history traits were the most important biological sensitivity attributes. More than two-thirds of the species had high potential for shifts in geographic distribution, due mostly to the prevalence of broadcast spawning, extensive larval dispersal, and high adult mobility of many species, and the generalist habitat requirements of several estuary-dependent and hard-bottom reef species. Some shifts in distribution have already occurred though potential relationships to environmental conditions associated with climate are not well-understood. Uncertainty analyses confirmed the robustness of the climate vulnerability rankings, but comparison of alternative types of elicited informed judgement did not always agree, suggesting higher uncertainty in climate vulnerability for some species. In addition, several species may benefit under future climate conditions, and climate effects on some species considered to be highly vulnerable may be of relatively small magnitude. These results can be used to prioritize conservation, research, and management efforts, and identify key uncertainties related to the impacts of future climate on fishery resources in the U.S. South Atlantic region.
• Source:
  PLOS Climate, 4(6), e0000543
• DOI:
  https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000543
• ISSN:
  2767-3200
• Format:
  PDF
• Publisher:
  Public Library of Science (PLoS)
• Document Type:
  Journal Article
• License:
  https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/
• Rights Information:
  CC0 Public Domain
• Compliance:
  Submitted
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha-512:8347bd487b4f11169f8f62a52c67fce114f8498c7bea27cb390064130bacebd6fc4e7deaf715d7dd4e2bac185895b4ff89dd293aafbcb972a80399d6b042652f
• Download URL:
  https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/71042/noaa_71042_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 2.18 MB ]