Changes in tornado risk and societal vulnerability leading to greater tornado impact potential

Strader, Stephen M.; Deppman, Jack H.; Gensini, Victor A.; Ashley, Walker S.; Wagner, Amanda N.

doi:10.1038/s44304-024-00019-6

i

Changes in tornado risk and societal vulnerability leading to greater tornado impact potential

Supporting Files

2024
By Strader, Stephen M. ; Deppman, Jack H. ; Gensini, Victor A. ; ...

Details

Journal Title:

npj Natural Hazards
Personal Author:

Strader, Stephen M. ; Deppman, Jack H. ; Gensini, Victor A. ; Ashley, Walker S. ; Wagner, Amanda N.
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research)
Description:

Tornado risk, as determined by the occurrence of atmospheric conditions that support tornado incidence, has exhibited robust spatial trends in the United States Southern Plains and Mid-South during recent decades. The consequences of these risk changes have not been fully explored, especially in conjunction with growing societal vulnerability. Herein, we assess how changes in risk and vulnerability over the last 40 years have collectively and individually altered tornado-housing impact potential. Results indicate that escalating vulnerability and exposure have outweighed the effects of spatially changing risk. However, the combination of increasing risk and exposure has led to a threefold increase in Mid-South housing exposure since 1980. Though Southern Plains tornado risk has decreased since 1980, amplifying exposure has led to more than a 50% increase in mean annual tornado-housing impact potential across the region. Stakeholders should use these findings to develop more holistic mitigation and resilience-building strategies that consider a dynamically changing tornado disaster landscape.
Keywords:

Hazard Mitigation Risk Assessment Tornadoes Hazard Mitigation Risk Assessment Resilience-building Strategies Societal Vulnerability Tornado Risk
Source:

npj Nat. Hazards 1, 20 (2024)
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-024-00019-6
Format:

PDF
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. NA21OAR4590265
License:

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Rights Information:

CC BY
Compliance:

Submitted
Main Document Checksum:

urn:sha-512:812df7e178e6ab830e8fa24a1c71256a9aba92cba7ea26074181d64b4c9dec9b4f0eb087d406591a153849c7875dd30b4929e8c88c648116df9b9c71ef0f9b5f
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/70621/noaa_70621_DS1.pdf
File Type:

[PDF - 6.97 MB ]

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