LFM Performance and Long-Wave Troughs

Details

• Corporate Authors:
  United States. National Weather Service. Eastern Region
• NOAA Program & Office:
  NWS (National Weather Service) ; ER (Eastern Region)
• Description:
  The LFM had some very large forecast errors during January and February 1982. Most forecasters in the Eastern U.S. were led down the garden path by a model now exhibiting schizoid behavior (steadily improving performance reverting to "gosh awful"). Many a Winter Storm Watch was issued only to be cancelled as the nonevent came closer. Recent verification of the 36-hour LFM 500mb progs by NMC showed a monthly mean algebraic height error of 100 meters centered over Kentucky for February 1982. (When the verification data is received from NMC, we will attach it to a future issue of the Outlook.) This meant that the LFM was overforecasting development in the Eastern U.S. A new product has recently become available which may help to diagnose and anticipate such errors in the future.
• Keywords:
  Atmospheric Models Evaluation Severe Storms Weather Forecasting Atmospheric Models Severe Storms Weather Forecasting
• Series:
  Eastern Region technical attachment (National Weather Service (U.S.))   82-05
• Format:
  pdf
• Document Type:
  Technical Attachment
• Place as Subject:
  East (U.S.)
• License:
  https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/
• Rights Information:
  CC0 Public Domain
• Compliance:
  Submitted
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha-512:4948dcb4cceace38887bc52c6994265b21443101d5f2c826559830d81bf9c420369ecfc459e173242a6907affe8120b49386662f43236c78591921cbf11398dd
• Download URL:
  https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/70491/noaa_70491_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 1.28 MB ]