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Himalayan earthquakes: a review of historical seismicity and early 21st century slip potential



Filetype [PDF - 20.66 MB]

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  • Journal Title:
    Geological Society, London, Special Publications
  • Personal Author:
    Bilham, Roger ORCID ICON IMG
  • NOAA Program & Office:
    CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
  • Description:
    This article summarizes recent advances in our knowledge of the past 1000 years of earthquakes in the Himalaya using geodetic, historical and seismological data, and identifies segments of the Himalaya that remain unruptured. The width of the Main Himalayan Thrust is quantified along the arc, together with estimates for the bounding coordinates of historical rupture zones, convergence rates, rupture propagation directions as constrained by felt intensities. The 2018 slip potential for fifteen segments of the Himalaya are evaluated and potential magnitudes assessed for future earthquakes should these segments fail in isolation or as contiguous ruptures. Ten of these fifteen segments are sufficiently mature currently to host a great earthquake (M w ≥ 8). Fatal Himalayan earthquakes have in the past occurred mostly in the daylight hours. The death toll from a future nocturnal earthquake in the Himalaya could possibly exceed 100 000 due to increased populations and the vulnerability of present-day construction methods.
  • Source:
    Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 483(1), 423-482
  • DOI:
    https://doi.org/10.1144/sp483.16
  • ISSN:
    0305-8719 ; 2041-4927
  • Format:
    pdf
  • Publisher:
    Geological Society of London
  • Document Type:
    Journal Article
  • License:
    https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/
  • Rights Information:
    CC BY
  • Compliance:
    Library
  • Download URL:
    https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/69217/noaa_69217_DS1.pdf
  • File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 20.66 MB]
  • Collection(s):
    NOAA Cooperative Institutes
  • Main Document Checksum:
    urn:sha-512:0013a214622ca48082f387c1319de9b6dca31ae8fa9f04796bda46413cffb9d119fafe945f775696727461bac63e1a567efa884af481a59e639bc9d0058f6bb2
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