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Is Weather Chaotic? Coexistence Of Chaos And Order Within A Generalized Lorenz Model
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2022
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Source: 18th Annual Meeting of the Asia Oceania Geosciences Society (2022)
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Journal Title:18th Annual Meeting of the Asia Oceania Geosciences Society
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Description:Since Lorenz’s 1963 study and 1972 presentation, the statement “weather is chaotic’’ has been well accepted. Such a view turns our attention from regularity associated with Laplace’s view of determinism to irregularity associated with chaos. In contrast to single type chaotic solutions, recent studies using a generalized Lorenz model (Shen, 2019a, b; Shen et al., 2019) have focused on the coexistence of chaotic and regular solutions that appear within the same model, using the same modeling configurations but different initial conditions. The results suggest that the entirety of weather possesses a dual nature of chaos and order with distinct predictability. Furthermore, Shen et al. (2021a, b) illustrated the following two mechanisms that may enable or modulate attractor coexistence: (1) the aggregated negative feedback of small-scale convective processes that enable the appearance of stable, steady-state solutions and their coexistence with chaotic or nonlinear limit cycle solutions, referred to as the 1st and 2nd kinds of attractor coexistence; and (2) the modulation of large-scale time varying forcing (heating) that can determine (or modulate) the alternative appearance of two kinds of attractor coexistence.
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Source:18th Annual Meeting of the Asia Oceania Geosciences Society (2022)
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Rights Information:CC BY-NC-ND
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