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Sources of seasonal sea-ice bias for CMIP6 models in the Hudson Bay Complex



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  • Journal Title:
    Annals of Glaciology
  • Personal Author:
  • NOAA Program & Office:
  • Description:
    The seasonal ice-free period in the Hudson Bay Complex (HBC) has grown longer in recent decades in response to warming, both from progressively earlier sea-ice retreat in summer and later sea-ice advance in fall. Such changes disrupt the HBC ecosystem and ice-based human activities. In this study, we compare 102 simulations from 37 models participating in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project to the satellite passive microwave record and atmospheric reanalyses. We show that, throughout the HBC, models simulate an ice-free period that averages 30 d longer than in satellite observations. This occurs because seasonal sea-ice advance is unrealistically late and seasonal sea-ice retreat is unrealistically early. We find that much of the ice-season bias can be linked to a warm bias in the atmosphere that is associated with a southerly wind bias, especially in summer. Many models also exhibit an easterly wind bias during winter and spring, which reduces sea-ice convergence on the east side of Hudson Bay and impacts the spatial patterns of summer sea-ice retreat. These results suggest that, for many models, more realistic simulation of atmospheric circulation would improve their simulation of HBC sea ice.
  • Source:
    Annals of Glaciology (2023)
  • DOI:
  • ISSN:
    0260-3055 ; 1727-5644
  • Format:
    pdf
  • Publisher:
    Cambridge University Press (CUP)
  • Document Type:
    Journal Article
  • License:
  • Rights Information:
    CC BY-NC-SA
  • Compliance:
    Library
  • Main Document Checksum:
    urn:sha-512:cb844a70a5ea0de0ef0bb2c1687ae99c59091624842390820a3065754a467f13061d041bb588832e2cfe16c430af5816eb7f8457e4c35a7233cbffd14f52c2c0
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  • File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 10.13 MB ]
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