A Predicted Pause in the Rapid Warming of the Northwest Atlantic Shelf in the Coming Decade

Koul, Vimal; Ross, Andrew C.; Stock, Charles; Zhang, Liping; Delworth, Thomas; Wittenberg, Andrew

doi:10.1029/2024gl110946

i

A Predicted Pause in the Rapid Warming of the Northwest Atlantic Shelf in the Coming Decade

2024
By Koul, Vimal ; Ross, Andrew C. ; Stock, Charles ; ...

Details

Journal Title:

Geophysical Research Letters
Personal Author:

Koul, Vimal ; Ross, Andrew C. ; Stock, Charles ; Zhang, Liping ; Delworth, Thomas ; Wittenberg, Andrew
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CIMES (Cooperative Institute for Modeling the Earth System) ; GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory)
Description:

The capability to anticipate the exceptionally rapid warming of the Northwest Atlantic Shelf and its evolution over the next decade could enable effective mitigation for coastal communities and marine resources. However, global climate models have struggled to accurately predict this warming due to limited resolution; and past regional downscaling efforts focused on multi‐decadal projections, neglecting predictive skill associated with internal variability. We address these gaps with a high resolution (1/12°) ensemble of dynamically downscaled decadal predictions. The downscaled simulations accurately predicted past oceanic variability at scales relevant to marine resource management, with skill typically exceeding global coarse‐resolution predictions. Over the long term, warming of the Shelf is projected to continue; however, we forecast a temporary warming pause in the next decade. This predicted pause is attributed to internal variability associated with a transient, moderate strengthening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and a southward shift of the Gulf Stream.
Source:

Geophysical Research Letters, 51(17)
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1029/2024gl110946
ISSN:

0094-8276 ; 1944-8007
Format:

pdf
Publisher:

American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. NA18OAR4320123 ; Grant no. NA23OAR4320198
License:

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Rights Information:

CC BY
Compliance:

Library
Main Document Checksum:

urn:sha-512:28f7896c781b1ba5123876c2ed77efe24ba29253505b2c69c1f1390adca33b88067433735b90eabfef4a59f3e86693778b9a7f56b160b7c6de73dc92e2ada1d4
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/67811/noaa_67811_DS1.pdf
File Type:

[PDF - 3.02 MB ]

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