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Downscaling gridded extreme water level estimates at shortterm tide gauge locations
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2025
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[PDF-3.86 MB]
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Description:Coastal flooding is one of the most significant hazards facing our coastal regions today. Extreme events—those events that result in the highest water levels and widest extent of flooding—are often the most costly, cause the largest number of deaths, and have been occurring more frequently in many areas of the U.S. due to sea level rise (SLR). Monitoring is critical when assessing vulnerability of an area to coastal flooding and the frequency at which extreme events occur. Many engineering designs and management practices are based on these extreme exceedance probability statistics. However, reliably estimating extreme event frequency requires long observational periods of record, limiting the number of National Ocean Service (NOS) tide gauges where these statistics can be derived and leaving large coverage gaps in the Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services’ (CO-OPS) Extreme Water Level data products along U.S. coastlines. To address this concern, CO-OPS performed the current study to focus on 2 primary objectives: 1) to enhance the coverage of the CO-OPS extremes products by using tide gauges with short periods of record to generate exceedance probability statistics, and 2) to test the robustness of the guidelines laid in the U.S. Interagency Task Force (ITF) on Sea Level Change technical report, “Global and Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States: Updated Mean Projections and Extreme Water Level Probabilities Along U.S. Coastlines” (hereafter referred to as the “ITF Report”) to downscale estimates from larger-scale, regionally derived extreme water levels (EWLs) at 1-degree spacing along the U.S. ocean coastlines.
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Rights Information:CC0 Public Domain
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Compliance:Submitted
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