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Climate resilience and profitability thresholds in Chesapeake Bay oyster aquaculture
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2024
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Source: Journal of Environmental Management, 372, 123202
[PDF-2.21 MB]
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Journal Title:Journal of Environmental Management
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Description:Shellfish aquaculture producers in coastal systems are facing uncertain future growing conditions as climate change alters weather patterns and raises sea level. We examined expected mid-century (2059–2068) changes in aquaculture profitability from recent conditions by integrating models of climate change, estuarine hydrodynamics and biogeochemistry, oyster growth, oyster mortality, and economics, using the Chesapeake Bay, USA as a case study. We developed an economic stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) approach that generates optimal grower behavior to maximize profits under uncertainty by dynamically choosing planting density, replanting and mitigation use, in response to changing oyster stock status and water quality conditions. Separate models were developed for bottom culture largely serving the cannery market, and container culture largely serving the half-shell market, to reflect different production costs, market prices, and oyster growth and survival. The coupled hydrodynamic-biogeochemical and oyster ecology models projected high spatial variability in oyster growth and mortality with the most favorable growing conditions in the lower north and upper mid bay, where mortality is lowest, and the upper south bay, where growth is highest. Climate change by late mid-century generated modest water quality changes and virtually no mortality rate changes. Nonetheless, our modeling revealed that even if growers made optimal management choices under uncertainty, the majority of modeled sites would see a decline in profitability under climate change, primarily due to potential reductions in food availability. Bottom culture was more resilient to the future climate at most sites, being less sensitive to small changes in growth than container culture. Information on how aquaculture conditions currently vary in space was more important for profitability than future climate forecasts. Our stochastic dynamic programming approach tailored grower behavior to each site and unfolding annual conditions, including highly targeted and cost-effective mitigation adjustments to boost oyster survival or growth.
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Source:Journal of Environmental Management, 372, 123202
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ISSN:0301-4797
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