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Advancement in ice-jam flood risk management: Integrating dynamic adaptive behavior by an agent-based modeling in Fort McMurray, Canada
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2024
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Source: Journal of Hydrology, 635, 131236
[PDF-4.42 MB]
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Journal Title:Journal of Hydrology
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Description:Ice-jam flooding is a prevalent extreme event that impacts flood hazard and vulnerability. We introduce a conceptual model framework for Dynamic Ice-jam Flood Risk Assessment (DIFRA). DIFRA integrates ice-jam flood hazard, ice-jam flood risk, and human adaptation. Using agent-based modeling, we captured top-down (artificial breakup) and bottom-up (flood-proofing) adaptive behavior. Our study in Fort McMurray, Canada, shows the complex interaction between micro-level behaviors and macro-level phenomena over time. Our variance-based global sensitivity analysis shows the role of dynamic adaptive behavior in ice-jam flood risk, where the artificial breakage by the government can lead to a regime shift and a decrease in the ice-jam flood risk. However, it can also decrease the number of newly adapted residents to flood-proofing and the role of residents in ice-jam flood risk. DIFRA offers a comprehensive approach to understanding and managing ice-jam flood risk, with potential applications to similar riverine communities in cold regions.
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Source:Journal of Hydrology, 635, 131236
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ISSN:0022-1694
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Rights Information:CC BY
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Compliance:Submitted
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