Advancement in ice-jam flood risk management: Integrating dynamic adaptive behavior by an agent-based modeling in Fort McMurray, Canada

Details

• Journal Title:
  Journal of Hydrology
• Personal Author:
  Ghoreishi, Mohammad ; Das, Apurba ; Lindenschmidt, Karl-Erich
• NOAA Program & Office:
  NWS (National Weather Service)
• Description:
  Ice-jam flooding is a prevalent extreme event that impacts flood hazard and vulnerability. We introduce a conceptual model framework for Dynamic Ice-jam Flood Risk Assessment (DIFRA). DIFRA integrates ice-jam flood hazard, ice-jam flood risk, and human adaptation. Using agent-based modeling, we captured top-down (artificial breakup) and bottom-up (flood-proofing) adaptive behavior. Our study in Fort McMurray, Canada, shows the complex interaction between micro-level behaviors and macro-level phenomena over time. Our variance-based global sensitivity analysis shows the role of dynamic adaptive behavior in ice-jam flood risk, where the artificial breakage by the government can lead to a regime shift and a decrease in the ice-jam flood risk. However, it can also decrease the number of newly adapted residents to flood-proofing and the role of residents in ice-jam flood risk. DIFRA offers a comprehensive approach to understanding and managing ice-jam flood risk, with potential applications to similar riverine communities in cold regions.
• Source:
  Journal of Hydrology, 635, 131236
• DOI:
  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.131236
• ISSN:
  0022-1694
• Format:
  pdf
• Publisher:
  Elsevier BV
• Document Type:
  Journal Article
• Funding:
  Grant no. NA22NWS4320003
• License:
  https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
• Rights Information:
  CC BY
• Compliance:
  Submitted
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha-512:17b594cd4dbe198a8bd8c30d41a6423f99d55fd7f6629fa4b7c806d684fb3282ff89f2cc4364add898a904a22fafd1cc33aac8966d33d033c765454fc1ffece4
• Download URL:
  https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/66520/noaa_66520_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 4.42 MB ]