Unlocking effective ice-jam risk management: Insights from agent-based modeling and comparative analysis of social theories in Fort McMurray, Canada
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Unlocking effective ice-jam risk management: Insights from agent-based modeling and comparative analysis of social theories in Fort McMurray, Canada

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  • Journal Title:
    Environmental Science & Policy
  • Personal Author:
  • NOAA Program & Office:
    NWS (National Weather Service)
  • Description:
    Ice jams pose a major flood hazard in communities along northern rivers, resulting in high backwater levels and overbank flooding during ice-cover breakup. Mitigation measures, including large-scale projects by government agencies and individual actions by asset owners, can help reduce flood risk and protect human life and assets. This study examines ice-jam flood risk and explores the effectiveness of adaptive strategies in mitigating such risks in Fort McMurry, Canada. It evaluates the effectiveness of top-down (government-led artificial breakup) and bottom-up (resident-led flood-proofing) strategies, comparing the Rational Choice Theory (RCT) and the Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) models. The objective is to explore the potential enhancements to the ice-jam flood risk model through the integration of the PMT as a decision-making framework under uncertainty. This study seeks to assess whether and to what extent such integration can improve the modeling of ice-jam flood risk. The findings highlight the benefits of incorporating socio-economic factors in the PMT model. Economic factors, such as income tax and the cost of flood-proofing, shape overall flood risk, especially when artificial breakup measures are not implemented. The study emphasizes the importance of considering heterogeneity in decision-making processes and diverse characteristics of individuals when designing flood risk management strategies. Response efficacy and self-efficacy coefficients are significant factors influencing flood risk and the adoption of flood-proofing measures. Enhancing individuals' belief in their actions' effectiveness and their confidence in self-protection contributes to more effective flood risk management. These findings inform the development of more effective flood risk management strategies.
  • Source:
    Environmental Science & Policy, 157, 103731
  • DOI:
  • ISSN:
    1462-9011
  • Format:
    pdf
  • Publisher:
    Elsevier BV
  • Document Type:
    Journal Article
  • Funding:
    Grant no. NA22NWS4320003
  • License:
  • Rights Information:
    CC BY
  • Compliance:
    Submitted
  • Main Document Checksum:
  • Download URL:
  • File Type:

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