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Increasing frequency of extremely severe cyclonic storms over the Arabian Sea
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2017
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Source: Nature Climate Change, 7(12), 885-889
[PDF-1.21 MB]
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Journal Title:Nature Climate Change
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NOAA Program & Office:
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Description:In 2014 and 2015, post-monsoon extremely severe cyclonic storms (ESCS)—defined by the WMO as tropical storms with lifetime maximum winds greater than 46 m s−1—were first observed over the Arabian Sea (ARB), causing widespread damage. However, it is unknown to what extent this abrupt increase in post-monsoon ESCSs can be linked to anthropogenic warming, natural variability, or stochastic behaviour. Here, using a suite of high-resolution global coupled model experiments that accurately simulate the climatological distribution of ESCSs, we show that anthropogenic forcing has likely increased the probability of late-season ECSCs occurring in the ARB since the preindustrial era. However, the specific timing of observed late-season ESCSs in 2014 and 2015 was likely due to stochastic processes. It is further shown that natural variability played a minimal role in the observed increase of ESCSs. Thus, continued anthropogenic forcing will further amplify the risk of cyclones in the ARB, with corresponding socio-economic implications.
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Source:Nature Climate Change, 7(12), 885-889
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DOI:
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ISSN:1758-678X;1758-6798;
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Document Type:
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Rights Information:Accepted Manuscript
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Compliance:Submitted
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