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Sensitivity of Convection-Allowing Forecasts to Land Surface Model Perturbations and Implications for Ensemble Design



Details

  • Journal Title:
    Monthly Weather Review
  • Personal Author:
  • NOAA Program & Office:
    OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research)
  • Description:
    In this exploratory study, a series of perturbations to the land surface model (LSM) component of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model was developed to investigate the sensitivity of forecasts of severe thunderstorms and heavy precipitation at 4-km grid spacing and whether such perturbations could improve ensemble forecasts at this scale. The perturbations (generated using a combination of perturbing fixed parameters and using separate schemes, one of which—Noah-MP—is new among the WRF modeling community) were applied to a 10-member ensemble including other mixed physics parameterizations and compared against an identically configured ensemble that did not include the LSM perturbations to determine their impact on probabilistic forecasts. A third ensemble using only the LSM perturbations was also configured.
  • Source:
    Monthly Weather Review, 145(5), 2001-2025
  • DOI:
  • ISSN:
    0027-0644 ; 1520-0493
  • Format:
    PDF
  • Publisher:
    American Meteorological Society
  • Document Type:
    Journal Article
  • Funding:
    Grant no. NA16OAR3450236
  • Rights Information:
    Other
  • Compliance:
    Library
  • Main Document Checksum:
    urn:sha-512:336bd16bbff8af743e4e3c65b51ce92c1ff550980a3953d1f47ff479bd0d0ca515ccce229e2bee6d0f2f8763f4fc8810d4bafeb07508f08ee098ed88ba837260
  • Download URL:
  • File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 6.62 MB ]
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