Impacts of the North Atlantic Subtropical High on Daily Summer Precipitation over the Conterminous United States
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Impacts of the North Atlantic Subtropical High on Daily Summer Precipitation over the Conterminous United States

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  • Journal Title:
    Journal of Hydrometeorology
  • Personal Author:
  • NOAA Program & Office:
    OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research)
  • Description:
    By modulating the moisture flux from ocean to adjacent land, the North Atlantic Subtropical High (NASH) western ridge significantly influences summer-season total precipitation over the Conterminous United States (CONUS). However, its influence on the frequency and intensity of daily rainfall events over the CONUS remains unclear. Here we introduce a Bayesian statistical model to investigate the impacts of the NASH western ridge position on key statistics of daily-scale summer precipitation, including the intensity of rainfall events, the probability of precipitation occurrence, and the probability of extreme values. These statistical quantities play a key role in characterizing both the impact of wet extremes (e.g., the probability of floods) and dry extremes. By applying this model to historical rain gauge records (1948-2019) covering the entire CONUS, we find that the western ridge of the NASH influences the frequency of rainfall as well as the distribution of rainfall intensities over extended areas of the CONUS. In particular, we find that the NASH ridge also modulates the frequency of extreme rainfall, especially that over part of the Southeast and upper Midwest. Our analysis underlines the importance of including the NASH western ridge position as a predictor for key statistical rainfall properties to be used for hydrological applications. This result is especially relevant for projecting future changes in daily rainfall regimes over the CONUS based on the predicted strengthening of the NASH in a warming climate.
  • Source:
    Journal of Hydrometeorology (2021)
  • DOI:
  • ISSN:
    1525-755X;1525-7541;
  • Format:
    PDF
  • Publisher:
    American Meteorological Society
  • Document Type:
    Journal Article
  • Funding:
    Grant no. NA18OAR4320123
  • Rights Information:
    Other
  • Compliance:
    Library
  • Main Document Checksum:
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