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Emergent Constraint for Future Decline in Arctic Phytoplankton Concentration
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2023
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Source: Earth's Future, 11(4)
[PDF-2.87 MB]
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Journal Title:Earth's Future
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Description:In recent decades, the Arctic Ocean has experienced continuous warming and freshening, affecting biogeochemical factors such as nutrient supply, light availability, chlorophyll, and productivity. While Arctic marine productivity is projected to increase due to the expansion of the open ocean and increased chlorophyll concentration, uncertainties related to chlorophyll and nutrients may distract the fidelity of productivity in current Earth system models (ESMs). Here, we analyze the existing uncertainty in the Arctic chlorophyll projections using the 26 ESMs participating in Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects 5 and 6 (CMIP5 and CMIP6). We found that the uncertainty in the Arctic chlorophyll projections in the CMIP6 ESMs is greater than in the CMIP5 ESMs due to increasing uncertainty in the background nitrate concentration. A significant relationship between background nitrate and projected chlorophyll (r = 0.86) is demonstrated using the observational climatology of nitrate. Based on this strong relationship, the emergent constraint is applied to reduce the uncertainty of future chlorophyll projections.
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Source:Earth's Future, 11(4)
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DOI:
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ISSN:2328-4277;2328-4277;
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Rights Information:CC BY-NC
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Compliance:Library
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