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A Baseline for the Predictability of U.S. Cloud‐to‐Ground Lightning
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2018
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Source: Geophysical Research Letters, 45(19)
[PDF-2.05 MB]
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Journal Title:Geophysical Research Letters
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Description:The product of convective available potential energy and precipitation rate is used as a proxy for U.S. cloud‐to‐ground (CG) lightning. The proxy is computed from numerical weather prediction model outputs and thus provides a simple method for producing CG lightning threat forecasts. Here three types of forecasts are considered: number of CG flashes, spatial extent of CG lightning occurrence, and lightning/no lightning maps at 1∘×1∘ resolution. Forecasts have statistically significant skill for lead times up to 15 days depending on the type of forecast. Verification of the forecasts over the United States provides a predictability baseline against which other approaches can be compared.
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Source:Geophysical Research Letters, 45(19)
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ISSN:0094-8276;1944-8007;
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Rights Information:CC BY-NC-ND
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Compliance:Library
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