A Baseline for the Predictability of U.S. Cloud‐to‐Ground Lightning

Tippett, Michael K.; Koshak, William J.

doi:10.1029/2018gl079750

i

A Baseline for the Predictability of U.S. Cloud‐to‐Ground Lightning

Supporting Files

2018
By Tippett, Michael K. ; Koshak, William J.

Details

Journal Title:

Geophysical Research Letters
Personal Author:

Tippett, Michael K. ; Koshak, William J.
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research)
Description:

The product of convective available potential energy and precipitation rate is used as a proxy for U.S. cloud‐to‐ground (CG) lightning. The proxy is computed from numerical weather prediction model outputs and thus provides a simple method for producing CG lightning threat forecasts. Here three types of forecasts are considered: number of CG flashes, spatial extent of CG lightning occurrence, and lightning/no lightning maps at 1∘×1∘ resolution. Forecasts have statistically significant skill for lead times up to 15 days depending on the type of forecast. Verification of the forecasts over the United States provides a predictability baseline against which other approaches can be compared.
Source:

Geophysical Research Letters, 45(19)
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1029/2018gl079750
ISSN:

0094-8276 ; 1944-8007
Format:

PDF
Publisher:

American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. NA16OAR4310145
License:

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Rights Information:

CC BY-NC-ND
Compliance:

Library
Main Document Checksum:

urn:sha-512:1c65a7b8e5eadce4a2d40c4bd43619b2c7b426843ac88075b1ad548685b3bfb78a92edb406b3a6e9d8d720f6e2784c2ddf9ca49efa0968092b5547a85634b9a7
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/64670/noaa_64670_DS1.pdf
File Type:

[PDF - 2.05 MB ]

Machine readable version (XML)

Download

ON THIS PAGE

Details Supporting Files

The NOAA IR serves as an archival repository of NOAA-published products including scientific findings, journal articles, guidelines, recommendations, or other information authored or co-authored by NOAA or funded partners. As a repository, the NOAA IR retains documents in their original published format to ensure public access to scientific information.