The NOAA IR serves as an archival repository of NOAA-published products including scientific findings, journal articles, guidelines, recommendations, or other information authored or co-authored by NOAA or funded partners.
As a repository, the NOAA IR retains documents in their original published format to ensure public access to scientific information.
i
Tropical Cyclone Gale Wind Radii Estimates, Forecasts, and Error Forecasts for the Western North Pacific
-
2018
-
-
Source: Weather and Forecasting, 33(4), 1081-1092
[PDF-1.16 MB]
Details:
-
Journal Title:Weather and Forecasting
-
Personal Author:
-
NOAA Program & Office:
-
Description:In 2016, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center extended forecasts of gale-force and other wind radii to 5 days. That effort and a thrust to perform postseason analysis of gale-force wind radii for the “best tracks” (the quality controlled and documented tropical cyclone track and intensity estimates released after the season) have prompted requirements for new guidance to address the challenges of both. At the same time, operational tools to estimate and predict wind radii continue to evolve, now forming a quality suite of gale-force wind radii analysis and forecasting tools. This work provides an update to real-time estimates of gale-force wind radii (a mean/consensus of gale-force individual wind radii estimates) that includes objective scatterometer-derived estimates. The work also addresses operational gale-force wind radii forecasting in that it provides an update to a gale-force wind radii forecast consensus, which now includes gale-force wind radii forecast error estimates to accompany the gale-force wind radii forecasts. The gale-force wind radii forecast error estimates are computed using predictors readily available in real time (e.g., consensus spread, initial size, and forecast intensity) so that operational reliability and timeliness can be ensured. These updates were all implemented in operations at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center by January 2018, and more updates should be expected in the coming years as new and improved guidance becomes available.
-
Keywords:
-
Source:Weather and Forecasting, 33(4), 1081-1092
-
DOI:
-
ISSN:0882-8156;1520-0434;
-
Format:
-
Publisher:
-
Document Type:
-
Rights Information:Other
-
Compliance:Library
-
Main Document Checksum:
-
Download URL:
-
File Type:
