The NOAA IR serves as an archival repository of NOAA-published products including scientific findings, journal articles, guidelines, recommendations, or other information authored or co-authored by NOAA or funded partners.
As a repository, the NOAA IR retains documents in their original published format to ensure public access to scientific information.
i
300 years of sclerosponge thermometry shows global warming has exceeded 1.5 °C
-
2024
-
-
Source: Nature Climate Change, 14(2), 171-177
[PDF-3.49 MB]
Details:
-
Journal Title:Nature Climate Change
-
Personal Author:
-
NOAA Program & Office:
-
Description:Anthropogenic emissions drive global-scale warming yet the temperature increase relative to pre-industrial levels is uncertain. Using 300 years of ocean mixed-layer temperature records preserved in sclerosponge carbonate skeletons, we demonstrate that industrial-era warming began in the mid-1860s, more than 80 years earlier than instrumental sea surface temperature records. The Sr/Ca palaeothermometer was calibrated against ‘modern’ (post-1963) highly correlated (R2 = 0.91) instrumental records of global sea surface temperatures, with the pre-industrial defined by nearly constant (<±0.1 °C) temperatures from 1700 to the early 1860s. Increasing ocean and land-air temperatures overlap until the late twentieth century, when the land began warming at nearly twice the rate of the surface oceans. Hotter land temperatures, together with the earlier onset of industrial-era warming, indicate that global warming was already 1.7 ± 0.1 °C above pre-industrial levels by 2020. Our result is 0.5 °C higher than IPCC estimates, with 2 °C global warming projected by the late 2020s, nearly two decades earlier than expected.
-
Keywords:
-
Source:Nature Climate Change, 14(2), 171-177
-
DOI:
-
ISSN:1758-678X;1758-6798;
-
Format:
-
Publisher:
-
Document Type:
-
Funding:
-
License:
-
Rights Information:CC BY
-
Compliance:Library
-
Main Document Checksum:
-
Download URL:
-
File Type:
