Predicting Rapid Intensification Events Following Tropical Cyclone Formation in the Western North Pacific Based on ECMWF Ensemble Warm Core Evolutions

Elsberry, Russell L.; Tsai, Hsiao-Chung; Chin, Wei-Chia; Marchok, Timothy P.

doi:10.3390/atmos12070847

i

Predicting Rapid Intensification Events Following Tropical Cyclone Formation in the Western North Pacific Based on ECMWF Ensemble Warm Core Evolutions

2021
By Elsberry, Russell L. ; Tsai, Hsiao-Chung ; Chin, Wei-Chia ; ...

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Journal Title:

Atmosphere
Personal Author:

Elsberry, Russell L. ; Tsai, Hsiao-Chung ; Chin, Wei-Chia ; Marchok, Timothy P.
NOAA Program & Office:

GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory) ; OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research)
Description:

When the environmental conditions over the western North Pacific are favorable for tropical cyclone formation, a rapid intensification event will frequently follow formation. In this extension of our combined three-stage 7-day Weighted Analog Intensity Pacific prediction technique, the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Prediction ensemble predictions of the warm core magnitudes of pre-tropical cyclone circulations are utilized to define the Time-to-Formation (35 knots) and to estimate the Likely Storm Category. If that category is a Typhoon, the bifurcation version of our technique is modified to better predict the peak intensity by selecting only Cluster 1 analog storms with the largest peak intensities that are most likely to have under-gone rapid intensification. A second modification to improve the peak intensity magnitude and timing was to fit a cubic spline curve through the weighted-mean peak intensities of the Cluster 1 analogs. The performance of this modified technique has been evaluated for a sequence of western North Pacific tropical cyclones during 2019 in terms of: (i) Detection time in advance of formation; (ii) Accuracy of Time-to-Formation; (iii) Intensification stage prediction; and (iv) Peak intensity magnitude/timing. This modified technique would provide earlier guidance as to the threat of a Typhoon along the 15-day ensemble storm track forecast, which would be a benefit for risk management officials.
Keywords:

Atmospheric Science Environmental Science (miscellaneous)
Source:

Atmosphere, 12(7), 847
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12070847
ISSN:

2073-4433
Format:

PDF
Publisher:

MDPI AG
Document Type:

Journal Article
License:

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Rights Information:

CC BY
Compliance:

Library
Main Document Checksum:

urn:sha-512:bef434fb12b15f59bce8ed6b6f292dfca0d6d15830eef0198b2b6f5831aae193450e0802bcce59564b8b4bb1e448b6c66dbcc6b967564405bd9f29b1fb8da9d0
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/64228/noaa_64228_DS1.pdf
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[PDF - 53.92 MB ]

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