Understanding emergency manager forecast use in severe weather events.

Ernst, Sean; LaDue, Daphne; Gerard, Alan

doi:10.15191/nwajom.2018.0609

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The NOAA IR serves as an archival repository of NOAA-published products including scientific findings, journal articles, guidelines, recommendations, or other information authored or co-authored by NOAA or funded partners. As a repository, the NOAA IR retains documents in their original published format to ensure public access to scientific information.

i

Understanding emergency manager forecast use in severe weather events.

2018
By Ernst, Sean ; LaDue, Daphne ; Gerard, Alan
Source: Journal of Operational Meteorology (2018)

[PDF-892.62 KB]

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Journal Title:

Journal of Operational Meteorology
Personal Author:

Ernst, Sean ; LaDue, Daphne ; Gerard, Alan

Ernst, Sean ; LaDue, Daphne ; Gerard, Alan Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

NSSL (National Severe Storms Laboratory) ; OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research)

NSSL (National Severe Storms Laboratory) ; OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) Less -
Description:

For Emergency Managers (EMs), preparations for severe weather have always relied on accurate, well-communicated National Weather Service (NWS) forecasts. As part of their constant work to improve these forecasts, the NWS has recently begun to develop impact-based products that share forecast uncertainty information with EMs, including the Probabilistic Hazard Information (PHI) tool. However, there is a lack of research investigating what forecast uncertainty information EMs understand, and what information needs exist in the current communication paradigm. This study used the Critical Incident Technique to identify themes from incidents involving weather forecast information that went well, or not so well, from the perspective of the EMs responding to them. In total, 11 EMs from a variety of locales east of the Rockies were interviewed—six of whom were county-level, two city, two state, and one from a school district. We found that EMs sought increased forecast detail as a potential event approached in time and built relational trust in the NWS through repeated interactions. EMs had difficulty preparing for events when they did not have details of the expected impacts, or the likelihood of those impacts, for their regions. In summary, EMs are already starting to work in an uncertainty-friendly frame and could be responsive to the impact details and increased forecaster relations proposed with the PHI tool.
Keywords:

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Atmospheric Science Computers In Earth Sciences Management Science And Operations Research
Source:

Journal of Operational Meteorology (2018)
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.15191/nwajom.2018.0609
ISSN:

2325-6184
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PDF
Publisher:

National Weather Association
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Journal Article
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urn:sha-512:3cbbc3face9bb030ebf51b4ca1e8816fa69317222e712c25812f3052b5c2a5a817ebd7ba050887c48db14050e7c9880182972b7ff87a71ccc6621338e1b0c28c
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Understanding emergency manager forecast use in severe weather events.

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