Convection Initiation Forecasting Using Synthetic Satellite Imagery from the Warn-on-Forecast System

Jones, Thomas A.; Mecikalski, John R.

doi:10.15191/nwajom.2023.1110

Advanced Search

Select up to three search categories and corresponding keywords using the fields to the right. Refer to the Help section for more detailed instructions.

Search our Collections & Repository

Advanced Search
Custom Query

All these words:

For very narrow results

This exact word or phrase:

When looking for a specific result

Any of these words:

Best used for discovery & interchangable words

None of these words:

Recommended to be used in conjunction with other fields

Language:

Dates

Publication Date Range:

to

Document Data

Title:

Document Type:

Library

Collection:

Series:

People

Author:

Clear All

Query Builder

Query box

Clear All

For additional assistance using the Custom Query please check out our Help Page

i

Convection Initiation Forecasting Using Synthetic Satellite Imagery from the Warn-on-Forecast System

2023
By Jones, Thomas A. ; Mecikalski, John R.
Source: Journal of Operational Meteorology (2023)

[PDF-2.94 MB]

Details You May Also Like

Details:

Journal Title:

Journal of Operational Meteorology
Personal Author:

Jones, Thomas A. ; Mecikalski, John R.

Jones, Thomas A. ; Mecikalski, John R. Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CIWRO (Cooperative Institute for Severe and High-Impact Weather Research and Operations) ; NSSL (National Severe Storms Laboratory)

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CIWRO (Cooperative Institute for Severe and High-Impact Weather Research and Operations) ; NSSL (National Severe Storms Laboratory) Less -
Description:

Forecasting convection initiation (CI) has advanced greatly during the past decade through the use of high-resolution satellite observations and model output. One of the primary CI products used in forecast operations is based on GOES-16 visible and infrared imagery along with GLM lightning flash detections to determine the location of growing ice-containing cumulus clouds that are the precursor to developing thunderstorms. Another approach to CI forecasting that has recently become available is high frequency output from numerical weather prediction (NWP) models such as the Warn-on-Forecast System (WoFS). NWP model simulated composite reflectivity forecasts are one method used to determine when and where severe thunderstorms might develop. However, waiting for high reflectivity (> 40 dBZ) to be created within the NWP model limits the potential lead time available to forecasters when using WoFS output to anticipate areas where convection might form.Also, forecast reflectivity alone does not always give an indication of whether or not the precipitation developed by the NWP model is convective in nature. To address these limitations, this work applies a CI forecasting methodology developed for GOES satellite data on synthetic satellite imagery produced from WoFS output. Forecast cloud objects are tracked over a 10-min interval and CI forecasting parameters are applied to determine whether or not these cloud objects will continue to develop into organized thunderstorms.
Keywords:

[+]

Atmospheric Science Computers In Earth Sciences Management Science And Operations Research
Source:

Journal of Operational Meteorology (2023)
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.15191/nwajom.2023.1110
ISSN:

2325-6184
Format:

PDF
Publisher:

National Weather Association
Document Type:

Journal Article
Rights Information:

Other
Compliance:

Submitted
Main Document Checksum:

[+]

urn:sha256:bf529152d2314e4bae3e5b75257086ec35f2041554476a0a3445cfc4a243da75
Download URL:

https://staging-noaa.cdc.gov/view/noaa/56439/noaa_56439_DS1.pdf
File Type:

No Additional Files

More +

Convection Initiation Forecasting Using Synthetic Satellite Imagery from the Warn-on-Forecast System

Details:

Supporting Files

You May Also Like