Recent advances in operational tropical cyclone genesis forecast

Hon, K.K.; Ballard, Robert; Blake, Eric; Bond, Steph; Gile, Robb; Halperin, Daniel; Helms, Charles; Lam, Hoang; Lyu, Xinyan; Mohapatra, Mrutyunjay; Sharma, Monica; Shimokobe, Akira; Toumi, Ralf; Won, Seonghee

doi:10.1016/j.tcrr.2023.12.001

i

Recent advances in operational tropical cyclone genesis forecast

2023
By Hon, K.K. ; Ballard, Robert ; Blake, Eric ; ...

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Journal Title:

Tropical Cyclone Research and Review
Personal Author:

Hon, K.K. ; Ballard, Robert ; Blake, Eric ; Bond, Steph ; Gile, Robb ; Halperin, Daniel ; Helms, Charles ; Lam, Hoang ; Lyu, Xinyan ; Mohapatra, Mrutyunjay ; Sharma, Monica ; Shimokobe, Akira ; Toumi, Ralf ; Won, Seonghee
NOAA Program & Office:

AOML (Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory) ; OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research)
Description:

Tropical cyclone (TC) genesis prediction is a major scientific challenge to the TC operation and research community. This report surveys the current status of TC genesis forecasts by a number of major operational centers covering the key ocean basins across both hemispheres. Since IWTC-9, we see an emergence of probabilistic TC genesis forecast products by operational centers, typically supported by the statistical processing of a combination of ensemble prediction and satellite analysis, covering time periods of couple of days to weeks ahead. The prevalence of multi-center grand ensemble approach highlights the uncertainties involved and the forecast challenges in quantitative genesis prediction. While operational practice might differ across agencies, verification efforts generally report a steady or slightly improving skill level in terms of reliability, which likely results from the continual improvement in global numerical weather prediction capability.
Keywords:

Atmospheric Science Computers In Earth Sciences Global And Planetary Change Modeling And Simulation Safety Research Computers In Earth Sciences Global And Planetary Change Modeling And Simulation Computers In Earth Sciences Global And Planetary Change Modeling And Simulation
Source:

Tropical Cyclone Research and Review, 12(4), 323-340
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tcrr.2023.12.001
ISSN:

2225-6032
Format:

PDF
Publisher:

Elsevier BV
Document Type:

Journal Article
License:

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Rights Information:

CC BY-NC-ND
Compliance:

Library
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urn:sha-512:f81499e7cf5a286f0c24610cbe2f7ff23ba69fb16f8b8c7dfb49e738d59d30e361e76ca6fa24afb07fab887d2f8e85bcd2aa552cb91bb744f5b6b063b901507c
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https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/63907/noaa_63907_DS1.pdf
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