A review of recent advances (2018–2021) on tropical cyclone intensity change from operational perspectives, part 2: Forecasts by operational centers

Wang, Weiguo; Zhang, Zhan; Cangialosi, John P.; Brennan, Michael; Cowan, Levi; Clegg, Peter; Takuya, Hosomi; Masaaki, Ikegami; Das, Ananda Kumar; Mohapatra, Mrutyunjay; Sharma, Monica; Knaff, John A.; Kaplan, John; Birchard, Thomas; Doyle, James D.; Heming, Julian; Moskaitis, Jonathan; Komaromi, William A.; Ma, Suhong; Sampson, Charles; Wu, Liguang; Blake, Eric

doi:10.1016/j.tcrr.2023.05.003

i

A review of recent advances (2018–2021) on tropical cyclone intensity change from operational perspectives, part 2: Forecasts by operational centers

2023
By Wang, Weiguo ; Zhang, Zhan ; Cangialosi, John P. ; ...

Details

Journal Title:

Tropical Cyclone Research and Review
Personal Author:

Wang, Weiguo ; Zhang, Zhan ; Cangialosi, John P. ; Brennan, Michael ; Cowan, Levi ; Clegg, Peter ; Takuya, Hosomi ; Masaaki, Ikegami ; Das, Ananda Kumar ; Mohapatra, Mrutyunjay ; Sharma, Monica ; Knaff, John A. ; Kaplan, John ; Birchard, Thomas ; Doyle, James D. ; Heming, Julian ; Moskaitis, Jonathan ; Komaromi, William A. ; Ma, Suhong ; Sampson, Charles ; Wu, Liguang ; Blake, Eric
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; AOML (Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory) ; NESDIS (National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service) ; STAR (Center for Satellite Applications and Research) ; NWS (National Weather Service) ; EMC (Environmental Modelling Center) ; NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) ; NHC (National Hurricane Center) ; OSTI (Office of Science and Technology Integration)
Description:

This paper summarizes the progress and activities of tropical cyclone (TC) operational forecast centers during the last four years (2018–2021). It is part II of the review on TC intensity change from the operational perspective in the rapporteur report presented to the 10th International Workshop on TCs (IWTC) held in Bali, Indonesia, from Dec. 5–9, 2022. Part I of the review has focused on the progress of dynamical model forecast guidance. This part discusses the performance of TC intensity and rapid intensification forecasts from several operational centers. It is shown that the TC intensity forecast errors have continued to decrease since the 9th IWTC held in 2018. In particular, the improvement of rapid intensification forecasts has accelerated, compared with years before 2018. Consensus models, operational procedures, tools and techniques, as well as recent challenging cases from 2018 to 2021 identified by operational forecast centers are described. Research needs and recommendations are also discussed.
Keywords:

Atmospheric Science Computers In Earth Sciences Global And Planetary Change Modeling And Simulation Safety Research Computers In Earth Sciences Global And Planetary Change Modeling And Simulation Computers In Earth Sciences Global And Planetary Change Modeling And Simulation
Source:

Tropical Cyclone Research and Review, 12(1), 50-63
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tcrr.2023.05.003
ISSN:

2225-6032
Format:

PDF
Publisher:

Elsevier BV
Document Type:

Journal Article
License:

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Rights Information:

CC BY-NC-ND
Compliance:

Submitted
Main Document Checksum:

urn:sha-512:ce2cdc17d27402aa776d534fcbf1b10a4a2d800bd5c93947f588f119cc68621e6d67b67f90d710cb3d74138f0539fce18246c37e08b9b5314baddb20d3c2e4ce
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/50604/noaa_50604_DS1.pdf
File Type:

[PDF - 2.98 MB ]

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