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State dependence of CO2 forcing and its implications for climate sensitivity
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2023
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Source: He et al., Science 382, 1051–1056 (2023)
[PDF-1.48 MB]
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Journal Title:Science
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Description:When evaluating the effect of carbon dioxide (CO2) changes on Earth’s climate, it is widely assumed that instantaneous radiative forcing from a doubling of a given CO2 concentration (IRF2×CO2) is constant and that variances in climate sensitivity arise from differences in radiative feedbacks or dependence of these feedbacks on the climatological base state. Here, we show that the IRF2×CO2 is not constant, but rather depends on the climatological base state, increasing by about 25% for every doubling of CO2, and has increased by about 10% since the preindustrial era primarily due to the cooling within the upper stratosphere, implying a proportionate increase in climate sensitivity. This base-state dependence also explains about half of the intermodel spread in IRF2×CO2, a problem that has persisted among climate models for nearly three decades.
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Source:He et al., Science 382, 1051–1056 (2023)
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Rights Information:Accepted Manuscript
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Compliance:Submitted
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