U.S. flag An official website of the United States government.
Official websites use .gov

A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the United States.

Secure .gov websites use HTTPS

A lock ( ) or https:// means you've safely connected to the .gov website. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites.

i

Future changes in the transitions of monthly‐to‐seasonal precipitation extremes over the Midwest in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models

Supporting Files


Select the Download button to view the document
Please click the download button to view the document.

Details

  • Journal Title:
    International Journal of Climatology
  • Personal Author:
  • NOAA Program & Office:
    OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research)
  • Description:
    Precipitation extremes present significant risks to Midwest agriculture, water resources, and natural ecosystems. Recently, there is growing attention to the transitions of precipitation extremes, or shifts between heavy precipitation and drought, due to their profound environmental and socio‐economic impacts. Changes in Midwest precipitation extremes and transitions between extremes over the past few decades have been documented; however, their future changes are still unknown. In this study, we estimate the projected changes in transitions of precipitation extremes in the Midwest based on 17 CMIP6 models. Two Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) based metrics, intra‐annual variability and transitions, are used to quantify the magnitude, duration, and frequency of variability and transitions between wet and dry extremes. Compared with the observation‐based precipitation datasets, the multimodel ensemble median of CMIP6 can reasonably represent the spatial patterns of SPI extremes and transitions. Climate projections show significantly intensified wet extremes across the Midwest by the end of the century, with a greater increase over the northern Midwest and the Great Lakes region. The short‐term SPI also shows intensified dry extremes over the western half of the Midwest. Consequently, there is a significant increase in the magnitude of intra‐annual variability in most areas. Projections also suggest more frequent and rapid transitions between the wet and dry extremes, especially over the Great Lakes region and northern Midwest. Seasonally, more frequent transitions from a wet spring to a dry summer (or from a dry fall to a wet winter/spring) are projected to occur; and generally, the wet and dry conditions between the transitions are projected to be more intense compared to the historical period. Furthermore, the intensified precipitation extremes and accelerated transitions are greatly alleviated under a lower emission scenario, implying that future changes in hydroclimate extremes, and impacts thereof, in the Midwest are sensitive to climate change mitigation.
  • Keywords:
  • Source:
    International Journal of Climatology, 43(1), 255-274
  • DOI:
  • ISSN:
    0899-8418 ; 1097-0088
  • Format:
    PDF
  • Publisher:
    Wiley
  • Document Type:
    Journal Article
  • Funding:
    Grant no. NA18OAR4310253B
  • License:
  • Rights Information:
    CC BY
  • Compliance:
    Library
  • Main Document Checksum:
    urn:sha256:d88249e4f15314a3b47d52d9b9889bd0b0f8bea701da78c08397952be1da40c8
  • Download URL:
  • File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 18.15 MB ]
PREVIOUS
ON THIS PAGE
Details Supporting Files
The NOAA IR serves as an archival repository of NOAA-published products including scientific findings, journal articles, guidelines, recommendations, or other information authored or co-authored by NOAA or funded partners. As a repository, the NOAA IR retains documents in their original published format to ensure public access to scientific information.
BACK TO TOP