Ephemeral relationships in salmon forecasting: A cautionary tale
Advanced Search
Select up to three search categories and corresponding keywords using the fields to the right. Refer to the Help section for more detailed instructions.

Search our Collections & Repository

All these words:

For very narrow results

This exact word or phrase:

When looking for a specific result

Any of these words:

Best used for discovery & interchangable words

None of these words:

Recommended to be used in conjunction with other fields

Language:

Dates

Publication Date Range:

to

Document Data

Title:

Document Type:

Library

Collection:

Series:

People

Author:

Help
Clear All

Query Builder

Query box

Help
Clear All

For additional assistance using the Custom Query please check out our Help Page

i

Ephemeral relationships in salmon forecasting: A cautionary tale

Filetype[PDF-3.53 MB]


Details You May Also Like

Details:

  • Journal Title:
    Progress in Oceanography
  • Personal Author:
    Wainwright, Thomas C.
  • NOAA Program & Office:
    NOAA General Documents
  • Description:
    The influence of climate on marine populations is important for predicting stock abundance of marine fishes, and has led to increasing interest in environment-based forecasts (EBFs) for harvest management. While some climate indices have proven useful for explaining fluctuations in Pacific salmon stock abundance, there have also been sudden failures of EBF models. I analyzed temporal patterns in prediction skill for a variety of climate and ecosystem indicators as predictors of marine survival for a coastal coho salmon stock by computing prediction skill for 29 climate and ecosystem indices across multiple time scales to explore patterns of skill across time. Results demonstrate that predictive skill of EBF models is often ephemeral, arising and falling suddenly across time. This behavior can be explained both on a statistical basis and as a consequence of complex interactions between climate, ecosystems, and populations involving both climate regime shifts and ecosystem phase transitions. Forecast failures are problematic for traditional forecast-dependent harvest management approaches. Solutions for this problem may include improved forecast models and improved climate and ecosystem indicators, but developing management systems that are robust to forecast uncertainty would provide a more reliable response to expected rapid ecosystem changes in response to climate.
  • Keywords:
  • Source:
    Progress in Oceanography, 193, 102522
  • DOI:
  • ISSN:
    0079-6611
  • Format:
    PDF
  • Publisher:
    Elsevier BV
  • Document Type:
    Journal Article
  • Rights Information:
    Accepted Manuscript
  • Compliance:
    Library
  • Main Document Checksum:
  • Download URL:
  • File Type:

Supporting Files

  • No Additional Files

More +

You May Also Like

Checkout today's featured content at repository.library.noaa.gov

Version 3.26