Projecting climate change impacts from physics to fisheries: A view from three California Current fisheries

Smith, James A.; Pozo Buil, Mercedes; Muhling, Barbara; Tommasi, Desiree; Brodie, Stephanie; Frawley, Timothy H.; Fiechter, Jerome; Koenigstein, Stefan; Himes-Cornell, Amber; Alexander, Michael A.; Bograd, Steven J.; Cordero Quirós, Nathalí; Crowder, Larry B.; Curchitser, Enrique; Green, Stephanie J.; Hardy, Natasha A.; Haynie, Alan C.; Hazen, Elliott L.; Holsman, Kirstin; Le Fol, Gwendal; Lezama-Ochoa, Nerea; Rykaczewski, Ryan R.; Stock, Charles A.; Stohs, Stephen; Sweeney, Jonathan; Welch, Heather; Jacox, Michael G.

doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2023.102973

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Projecting climate change impacts from physics to fisheries: A view from three California Current fisheries

2023
By Smith, James A. ; Pozo Buil, Mercedes ; Muhling, Barbara ; ...
Source: Progress in Oceanography, 211, 102973

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Details:

Journal Title:

Progress in Oceanography
Personal Author:

Smith, James A. ; Pozo Buil, Mercedes ; Muhling, Barbara ; Tommasi, Desiree ; Brodie, Stephanie ; ... More +

Smith, James A. ; Pozo Buil, Mercedes ; Muhling, Barbara ; Tommasi, Desiree ; Brodie, Stephanie ; Frawley, Timothy H. ; Fiechter, Jerome ; Koenigstein, Stefan ; Himes-Cornell, Amber ; Alexander, Michael A. ; Bograd, Steven J. ; Cordero Quirós, Nathalí ; Crowder, Larry B. ; Curchitser, Enrique ; Green, Stephanie J. ; Hardy, Natasha A. ; Haynie, Alan C. ; Hazen, Elliott L. ; Holsman, Kirstin ; Le Fol, Gwendal ; Lezama-Ochoa, Nerea ; Rykaczewski, Ryan R. ; Stock, Charles A. ; Stohs, Stephen ; Sweeney, Jonathan ; Welch, Heather ; Jacox, Michael G. Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

NMFS (National Marine Fisheries Service) ; AFSC (Alaska Fisheries Science Center) ; PIFSC (Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center) ; SWFSC (Southwest Fisheries Science Center) ; OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; ... More +

NMFS (National Marine Fisheries Service) ; AFSC (Alaska Fisheries Science Center) ; PIFSC (Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center) ; SWFSC (Southwest Fisheries Science Center) ; OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; PSL (Physical Sciences Laboratory) Less -
Description:

Motivated by a need for climate-informed living marine resource management, increased emphasis has been placed on regional end-to-end modeling frameworks designed to project climate impacts on marine ecosystems and evaluate the efficacy of potential management strategies under changing conditions. The ‘Future Seas’ project was initiated with a focus on three fisheries (Pacific sardine, swordfish, and albacore tuna) in the California Current System (CCS). This work leverages a suite of climate, ocean, ecosystem, and economic models to project physical, ecological, and socio-economic change, evaluate management strategies, and quantify uncertainty in model projections. Here we describe the components of the modeling framework, considerations underlying choices made in model development, engagement with stakeholders, and key physical, ecological, and socio-economic results to date, including projections to 2100. Our broad aims are to (i) synthesize a large body of climate and fisheries research that has been conducted, and continues, under the Future Seas umbrella, and (ii) provide insight and recommendations to those pursuing similar efforts for other applications and in other regions. In general, our results indicate that all three species will likely shift their distributions (predominantly poleward) in the future, which impacts accessibility to fishing fleets, spatial management, and quota allocation. For similar integrative climate-to-fisheries projections, we recommend attention is given to: recognizing potential biases arising from differences between the climate products used for ecological model fitting and those used for model projection; how sources of projection uncertainty are prioritized, incorporated, and communicated; and quantitatively linking scenarios – especially socio-economic scenarios – with climate and ecological projections.
Keywords:

[+]

Aquatic Science Geology
Source:

Progress in Oceanography, 211, 102973
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2023.102973
ISSN:

0079-6611
Format:

PDF
Publisher:

Elsevier BV
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. NA17OAR4310268 ; Grant no. NA20OAR4310507

Grant no. NA17OAR4310268 ; Grant no. NA20OAR4310507 Less -
License:

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Rights Information:

CC BY
Compliance:

Submitted
Main Document Checksum:

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urn:sha256:5693f38a67e92797c72cff74afd58938761526d370b1785bca9927a0a40a1e7f
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/49298/noaa_49298_DS1.pdf
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