A review of recent advances (2018–2021) on tropical cyclone intensity change from operational perspectives, part 1: Dynamical model guidance

Details

• Journal Title:
  Tropical Cyclone Research and Review
• Personal Author:
  Zhang, Zhan ; Wang, Weiguo ; Doyle, James D. ; Moskaitis, Jonathan ; Komaromi, William A. ; Heming, Julian ; Magnusson, Linus ; Cangialosi, John P. ; Cowan, Levi ; Brennan, Michael ; Ma, Suhong ; Das, Ananda Kumar ; Takuya, Hosomi ; Clegg, Peter ; Birchard, Thomas ; Knaff, John A. ; Kaplan, John ; Mohapatra, Mrutyunjay ; Sharma, Monica ; Masaaki, Ikegami ; Wu, Liguang ; Blake, Eric
• NOAA Program & Office:
  OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; AOML (Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory) ; NESDIS (National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service) ; STAR (Center for Satellite Applications and Research) ; NWS (National Weather Service) ; EMC (Environmental Modelling Center) ; NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) ; OSTI (Office of Science and Technology Integration)
• Description:
  This review summarizes the rapporteur report on tropical cyclone (TC) intensity change from the operational perspective, as presented to the 10th International Workshop on TCs (IWTC-10) held in Bali, Indonesia, from Dec. 5–9, 2022. The accuracy of TC intensity forecasts issued by operational forecast centers depends on three aspects: real-time observations, TC dynamical model forecast guidance, and techniques and methods used by forecasters. The rapporteur report covers the progress made over the past four years (2018–2021) in all three aspects. This review focuses on the progress of dynamical model forecast guidance. The companion paper (Part II) summarizes the advance from operational centers. The dynamical model forecast guidance continues to be the main factor leading to the improvement of operational TC intensity forecasts. Here, we describe recent advances and developments of major operational regional dynamical TC models and their intensity forecast performance, including HWRF, HMON, COAMPS-TC, Met Office Regional Model, CMA-TYM, and newly developed HAFS. The performance of global dynamical models, including NOAA's GFS, Met Office Global Model (MOGM), JMA's GSM, and IFS (ECMWF), has also been improved in recent years due to their increased horizontal and vertical resolution as well as improved data assimilation systems. Recent challenging cases of rapid intensification are presented and discussed.
• Keywords:
  Atmospheric Science Computers In Earth Sciences Global And Planetary Change Modeling And Simulation Safety Research Computers In Earth Sciences Global And Planetary Change Modeling And Simulation Computers In Earth Sciences Global And Planetary Change Modeling And Simulation

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• Source:
  Tropical Cyclone Research and Review, 12(1), 30-49
• DOI:
  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tcrr.2023.05.004
• ISSN:
  2225-6032
• Format:
  PDF
• Publisher:
  Elsevier BV
• Document Type:
  Journal Article
• License:
  https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
• Rights Information:
  CC BY-NC-ND
• Compliance:
  Submitted
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha256:584722ab5aef218bbbac653abe226c34a8ff44140fc2d35c6700f0e1a5e99444
• Download URL:
  https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/56679/noaa_56679_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 6.90 MB ]