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Description:A procedure is developed for providing weather foreguidance over the short period between 0 and 12 hours. It uses only the local surface observation elements as predictors. The same equations are used for any location and project probabilistic predictions iteratively hour by hour. The model is founded on a Markov assumption and utilizes multivariate linear regression as the statistical operator. Details are given on how the model is constructed. Experimental results that probe the basic characteristics of the approach are presented, followed by independent verification of results. Features of the model's operational implementation are discussed under a variety of possible configurations. Certain future efforts are proposed for enhancing the technique.
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Rights Information:CC0 Public Domain
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