Alternate Histories: Synthetic Large Ensembles of Sea‐Air CO 2 Flux

Olivarez, Holly C.; Lovenduski, Nicole S.; Brady, Riley X.; Fay, Amanda R.; Gehlen, Marion; Gregor, Luke; Landschützer, Peter; McKinley, Galen A.; McKinnon, Karen A.; Munro, David R.

doi:10.1029/2021gb007174

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Alternate Histories: Synthetic Large Ensembles of Sea‐Air CO 2 Flux

2022
By Olivarez, Holly C. ; Lovenduski, Nicole S. ; Brady, Riley X. ; ...
Source: Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 36(6)

[PDF-1.73 MB]

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Details:

Journal Title:

Global Biogeochemical Cycles
Personal Author:

Olivarez, Holly C. ; Lovenduski, Nicole S. ; Brady, Riley X. ; Fay, Amanda R. ; Gehlen, Marion ; ... More +

Olivarez, Holly C. ; Lovenduski, Nicole S. ; Brady, Riley X. ; Fay, Amanda R. ; Gehlen, Marion ; Gregor, Luke ; Landschützer, Peter ; McKinley, Galen A. ; McKinnon, Karen A. ; Munro, David R. Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

NESDIS (National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service) ; OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences) ; GML (Global Monitoring Laboratory) ; NCEI (National Centers for Environmental Information)

NESDIS (National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service) ; OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences) ; GML (Global Monitoring Laboratory) ; NCEI (National Centers for Environmental Information) Less -
Description:

We use a statistical emulation technique to construct synthetic ensembles of global and regional sea-air carbon dioxide (CO2) flux from four observation-based products over 1985–2014. Much like ensembles of Earth system models that are constructed by perturbing their initial conditions, our synthetic ensemble members exhibit different phasing of internal variability and a common externally forced signal. Our synthetic ensembles illustrate an important role for internal variability in the temporal evolution of global and regional CO2 flux and produce a wide range of possible trends over 1990–1999 and 2000–2009. We assume a specific externally forced signal and calculate the rank of the observed trends within the distribution of statistically
Keywords:

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Atmospheric Science Environmental Chemistry General Environmental Science Global And Planetary Change
Source:

Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 36(6)
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1029/2021gb007174
ISSN:

0886-6236;1944-9224;
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PDF
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American Geophysical Union (AGU)
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Journal Article
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urn:sha256:2b3d4c07344d1a6d9dca88cdf46461dfd7da69be3f1f658f07870d9e0807e9ef
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/54260/noaa_54260_DS1.pdf
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