Statistical Modeling of the Bering Strait Throughflow for Operational Sea Ice Forecasting in the Chukchi Sea

Lenetsky, Jed E.; Serreze, Mark C.

doi:10.1029/2021gl092939

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Statistical Modeling of the Bering Strait Throughflow for Operational Sea Ice Forecasting in the Chukchi Sea

2021
By Lenetsky, Jed E. ; Serreze, Mark C.
Source: Geophysical Research Letters, 48(10)

[PDF-1.62 MB]

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Details:

Journal Title:

Geophysical Research Letters
Personal Author:

Lenetsky, Jed E. ; Serreze, Mark C.

Lenetsky, Jed E. ; Serreze, Mark C. Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

NESDIS (National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service) ; CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences) ; NCEI (National Centers for Environmental Information)

NESDIS (National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service) ; CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences) ; NCEI (National Centers for Environmental Information) Less -
Description:

We utilize statistically modeled ocean heat transports through the Bering Strait along with additional predictors to create skillful predictions of sea ice retreat and advance dates in the Chukchi Sea. Interannual variability of June and September oceanic heat transports through the strait can be captured using modeled Ekman transports, surface winds, and sea surface temperatures. At one-month leads, our models can explain 41% and 79% of sea ice retreat and advance date variance with root mean squared errors (RMSEs) of 10.2 and 12.8 days respectively. At 4-month leads, our models can respectively capture 37% and 73% of sea ice retreat and advance date variance with RMSEs of 8.5 and 14.6 days. These findings
Keywords:

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General Earth And Planetary Sciences Geophysics
Source:

Geophysical Research Letters, 48(10)
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1029/2021gl092939
ISSN:

0094-8276;1944-8007;
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PDF
Publisher:

American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Document Type:

Journal Article
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Main Document Checksum:

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urn:sha256:c8572b6c49a884a3b5ba30b89cd00c8dd654014d5595192c4f0bc170edc31267
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/53812/noaa_53812_DS1.pdf
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