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M-PERC: A New Satellite Microwave-Based Model to Diagnose the Onset of Tropical Cyclone Eyewall Replacement Cycles
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2023
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Source: Weather and Forecasting (2023)
[PDF-1.23 MB]
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Journal Title:Weather and Forecasting
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Description:Eyewall replacement cycles (ERCs) in tropical cyclones (TCs) are generally associated with rapid changes in TC wind intensity and broadening of the TC wind-field, both of which can create unique forecasting challenges. As part of the NOAA Joint Hurricane Testbed Project, a new model was developed to provide operational probabilistic guidance on ERC onset. The model is based on the time evolution of TC wind-intensity and passive satellite microwave imagery, and is named “M-PERC” for Microwave-based Probability of Eyewall Replacement Cycle. The model was initially developed in the Atlantic basin, but is found to be globally applicable and skillful. The development of M-PERC and its performance characteristics are described here, as well as a new intensity prediction model that extends previous work. Application of these models is expected to contribute to a reduction of TC intensity forecast error.
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Source:Weather and Forecasting (2023)
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ISSN:0882-8156;1520-0434;
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Rights Information:Other
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