A Rapid Intensification Deterministic Ensemble (RIDE) for the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s Area of Responsibility

Knaff, John A.; Sampson, Charles R.; Brammer, Alan; Slocum, Christopher J.

doi:10.1175/waf-d-23-0012.1

Advanced Search

Select up to three search categories and corresponding keywords using the fields to the right. Refer to the Help section for more detailed instructions.

Search our Collections & Repository

Advanced Search
Custom Query

All these words:

For very narrow results

This exact word or phrase:

When looking for a specific result

Any of these words:

Best used for discovery & interchangable words

None of these words:

Recommended to be used in conjunction with other fields

Language:

Dates

Publication Date Range:

to

Document Data

Title:

Document Type:

Library

Collection:

Series:

People

Author:

Clear All

Query Builder

Query box

Clear All

For additional assistance using the Custom Query please check out our Help Page

i

A Rapid Intensification Deterministic Ensemble (RIDE) for the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s Area of Responsibility

2023
By Knaff, John A. ; Sampson, Charles R. ; Brammer, Alan ; ...
Source: Weather and Forecasting (2023)

[PDF-1.81 MB]

Details You May Also Like

Details:

Journal Title:

Weather and Forecasting
Personal Author:

Knaff, John A. ; Sampson, Charles R. ; Brammer, Alan ; Slocum, Christopher J.

Knaff, John A. ; Sampson, Charles R. ; Brammer, Alan ; Slocum, Christopher J. Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

NESDIS (National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service) ; CIRA (Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere) ; STAR (Center for Satellite Applications and Research)

NESDIS (National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service) ; CIRA (Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere) ; STAR (Center for Satellite Applications and Research) Less -
Description:

The Rapid Intensification Deterministic Ensemble (RIDE) is an operational method used to estimate the probability of tropical cyclone rapid intensification in the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s Area of Responsibility. Inputs to RIDE are current intensity, storm latitude, intensity change forecasts from seven routinely available operational deterministic models of intensity change, and the number of those models exceeding their individual 90th percentile of intensity change. Deterministic model inputs come from four numerical weather prediction models, two statistical–dynamical models, and one purely statistical model. In RIDE, logistic regression combines the deterministic inputs to form a probabilistic rapid intensification forecast model. RIDE then also generates deterministic intensity forecasts from these probabilistic forecasts that serve as forecaster guidance and as input to intensity consensus aids. Results based on a year of independent verification suggest good reliability and discrimination with a general tendency to underpredict rapid intensification events, but with few false alarms.
Keywords:

[+]

Atmospheric Science
Source:

Weather and Forecasting (2023)
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-23-0012.1
ISSN:

0882-8156;1520-0434;
Format:

PDF
Publisher:

American Meteorological Society
Document Type:

Journal Article
Rights Information:

Other
Compliance:

Library
Main Document Checksum:

[+]

urn:sha256:268a6fdc8240c613fd9f6c7ca63f26d8d336357178b885f267cfd8d4885cda09
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/53677/noaa_53677_DS1.pdf
File Type:

No Additional Files

More +

A Rapid Intensification Deterministic Ensemble (RIDE) for the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s Area of Responsibility

Details:

Supporting Files

You May Also Like